{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b942baf4-7b65-4e3c-a589-3e739d94d333", "symbol": "NTCT", "name": "NetScout Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.92, "architecture_energy": 20.538, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.305, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.95, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 57.88, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 19.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.077333, 40.637455, 39.913429, 37.964495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.44, "trend_reference": 35.133333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.050481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.534501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.322822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.38923, "excess_performance": 0.201777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094118, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.534501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083228, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.38923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.778819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2932382, "relative_activity": 1.010608, "balance": 0.778819, "dry_up": 0.907386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090099, "annualized_volatility": 0.314352, "from_high_reference": -0.15106, "from_low_reference": 0.803002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.133333, "fair_value_reference": 25.050481, "structural_low": 27.3016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.019793, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.017275, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.233013, "worst_return": -0.138808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032198, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.043279, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.305399, "worst_return": -0.250331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093227, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.493357, "worst_return": -0.170596, "sufficient": true }, { 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33.883333, "fair_value": 24.824006, "relative_strength": 23.731359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.242184, "energy": 50.332585, "activity_lines": [ 41.790667, 41.409273, 39.23581, 36.920022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.0, "volume": 2517355, "typical_volume": 3072197.5, "trend": 34.288333, "fair_value": 24.903045, "relative_strength": 20.859365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.917892, "energy": 42.368613, "activity_lines": [ 41.312667, 41.222545, 39.539286, 37.314645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.67, "volume": 2163162, "typical_volume": 3045248.15, "trend": 34.749, "fair_value": 24.984327, "relative_strength": 21.177479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.605585, "energy": 34.676429, "activity_lines": [ 41.036, 41.129636, 39.858, 37.726366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.44, "volume": 2932382, "typical_volume": 2901601.85, "trend": 35.133333, "fair_value": 25.050481, "relative_strength": 8.322822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.920391, "energy": 20.537867, "activity_lines": [ 40.077333, 40.637455, 39.913429, 37.964495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }