{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b94436d4-7143-4a0b-9aec-f71e0fcb2604", "symbol": "F", "name": "Ford Motor Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.772, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.098, "architecture_energy": 21.447, "architecture_maturity": 19.771, "architecture_confidence": 57.442, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.83, "rotation_up": 35.15, "upward_expansion": 63.54, "deceleration": 70.55, "rotation_down": 23.42, "downward_expansion": 8.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.125715, 13.985621, 13.949719, 13.606281 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.98, "trend_reference": 13.337755, "distance_from_trend": 0.048152, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.955172, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.176849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036614, "excess_performance": -0.089011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048152, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138551, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.611331, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232162834, "relative_activity": 0.86781, "balance": 1.611331, "dry_up": 1.031675, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118566, "annualized_volatility": 0.488464, "from_high_reference": -0.213723, "from_low_reference": 0.308111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.337755, "fair_value_reference": 10.955172, "structural_low": 10.972727, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012198, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025502, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206215, "worst_return": -0.081337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071585, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.084181, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.474307, "worst_return": -0.138965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187907, "worst_return": -0.17762, "sufficient": true 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0.325006, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.975355, "energy": 19.765257, "activity_lines": [ 13.61905, 14.092063, 13.668073, 13.426788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.983038, "volume": 292831775, "typical_volume": 270295445.75, "trend": 13.279549, "fair_value": 10.906018, "relative_strength": 1.74458, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.78273, "energy": 16.576083, "activity_lines": [ 13.728093, 14.020078, 13.751228, 13.474272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.68, "volume": 348859498, "typical_volume": 273902802.25, "trend": 13.334326, "fair_value": 10.930823, "relative_strength": 5.344575, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.369119, "energy": 23.673326, "activity_lines": [ 14.074588, 14.064213, 13.891317, 13.564624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.98, "volume": 232162834, "typical_volume": 267527205.8, "trend": 13.337755, "fair_value": 10.955172, "relative_strength": -3.176849, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.098467, "energy": 21.446795, "activity_lines": [ 14.125715, 13.985621, 13.949719, 13.606281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }