{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b94bb1fa-3096-49e3-aeb4-0d05598ea328", "symbol": "000563", "name": "Shaanxi International Trust Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.776, "architecture_energy": 25.574, "architecture_maturity": 96.592, "architecture_confidence": 74.307, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.89, "rotation_up": 32.41, "upward_expansion": 20.03, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 22.7, "downward_expansion": 56.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.010667, 2.960364, 3.000834, 3.090071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.99, "trend_reference": 3.214697, "distance_from_trend": -0.069897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.165008, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.757854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.149242, "excess_performance": -0.156642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204491776, "relative_activity": 1.152468, "balance": 0.519925, "dry_up": 1.427646, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04708, "annualized_volatility": 0.170382, "from_high_reference": -0.228157, "from_low_reference": 0.067857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.214697, "fair_value_reference": 3.165008, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.01692, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.366667, "median_excess_return": -0.005249, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.27758, "worst_return": -0.131054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014669, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029212, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.296029, "worst_return": -0.142675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015674, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.062124, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.298434, "worst_return": -0.152615, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.460402, "energy": 78.895218, "activity_lines": [ 2.858667, 2.905455, 3.043611, 3.149166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.0, "volume": 304116458, "typical_volume": 192853733.3, "trend": 3.253016, "fair_value": 3.161434, "relative_strength": -11.883561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.43912, "energy": 57.492515, "activity_lines": [ 2.902667, 2.912, 3.0276, 3.131989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 282446395, "typical_volume": 190073438.6, "trend": 3.238799, "fair_value": 3.162288, "relative_strength": -12.122598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.395012, "energy": 41.173255, "activity_lines": [ 2.936, 2.919455, 3.012274, 3.114375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.1, "volume": 222221145, "typical_volume": 185672508.0, "trend": 3.227927, "fair_value": 3.164031, "relative_strength": -6.559648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.633368, "energy": 25.860746, "activity_lines": [ 3.001333, 2.950545, 3.010828, 3.105421 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.99, "volume": 204491776, "typical_volume": 177438206.65, "trend": 3.214697, "fair_value": 3.165008, "relative_strength": -13.757854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.776313, "energy": 25.574212, "activity_lines": [ 3.010667, 2.960364, 3.000834, 3.090071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }