{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b94dc15a-9d78-4bfe-aebb-1c2c36ebe41a", "symbol": "MRSH", "name": "Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.075, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.746, "architecture_energy": 68.591, "architecture_maturity": 13.914, "architecture_confidence": 60.531, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.15, "rotation_up": 77.62, "upward_expansion": 66.62, "deceleration": 18.2, "rotation_down": 16.52, "downward_expansion": 22.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 186.591427, 180.891589, 174.504459, 173.767862 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 191.65, "trend_reference": 174.397924, "distance_from_trend": 0.098924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 197.437366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029312, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.929368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041162, "excess_performance": -0.084463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098924, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010484, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029312, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144849, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.538949, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10185288, "relative_activity": 0.750566, "balance": 1.538949, "dry_up": 1.002157, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051411, "annualized_volatility": 0.248458, "from_high_reference": -0.090544, "from_low_reference": 0.223819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 174.397924, "fair_value_reference": 197.437366, "structural_low": 156.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027879, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018365, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.01, "worst_return": -0.062583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00037, "worst_return": -0.098395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.094535, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.077583, "worst_return": -0.111486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -8.942091, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.350993, "energy": 34.702597, "activity_lines": [ 176.358897, 171.777879, 169.609019, 171.181432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 180.74, "volume": 14372770, "typical_volume": 13834541.05, "trend": 173.847499, "fair_value": 197.332854, "relative_strength": -8.060612, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.888822, "energy": 46.569672, "activity_lines": [ 178.898099, 174.005843, 170.635188, 171.616634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 189.69, "volume": 18166418, "typical_volume": 14062422.45, "trend": 174.14846, "fair_value": 197.38576, "relative_strength": -4.116884, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.456839, "energy": 61.050759, "activity_lines": [ 183.138208, 177.50308, 172.520372, 172.638731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.65, "volume": 10185288, "typical_volume": 13570140.6, "trend": 174.397924, "fair_value": 197.437366, "relative_strength": -5.929368, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.746299, "energy": 68.590664, "activity_lines": [ 186.591427, 180.891589, 174.504459, 173.767862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }