{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b94f056a-b663-443c-ab52-04651d494a91", "symbol": "TIP10D", "name": "UBS BBG TIPS 10+ UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.277, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.117, "architecture_energy": 84.821, "architecture_maturity": 8.171, "architecture_confidence": 82.769, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.55, "rotation_up": 8.15, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 83.34, "downward_expansion": 98.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.322987, 9.417495, 9.482921, 9.520378 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.31, "trend_reference": 9.569759, "distance_from_trend": -0.027144, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.49014, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018982, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.778002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030168, "excess_performance": -0.113051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005859, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018982, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02951, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030168, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2252, "relative_activity": 0.268039, "balance": 0.327341, "dry_up": 0.688755, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011382, "annualized_volatility": 0.090834, "from_high_reference": -0.07486, "from_low_reference": 0.006141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.569759, "fair_value_reference": 9.49014, "structural_low": 9.258, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000699, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.008791, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.094448, "worst_return": -0.107077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026291, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.027949, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052634, "worst_return": -0.138734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055208, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.026655, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.019139, "worst_return": -0.125632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.680946, "energy": 76.728665, "activity_lines": [ 9.426613, 9.504862, 9.52957, 9.558527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.2658, "volume": 5474, "typical_volume": 9097.65, "trend": 9.578455, "fair_value": 9.491577, "relative_strength": -12.341645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.293563, "energy": 87.051616, "activity_lines": [ 9.35316, 9.455429, 9.503447, 9.537698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.31, "volume": 2252, "typical_volume": 8401.75, "trend": 9.569759, "fair_value": 9.49014, "relative_strength": -12.778002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.117476, "energy": 84.821306, "activity_lines": [ 9.322987, 9.417495, 9.482921, 9.520378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }