{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b950b8c4-b669-48e3-8e47-8f0b5dfe6c44", "symbol": "300618", "name": "Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.583, "architecture_energy": 50.806, "architecture_maturity": 49.444, "architecture_confidence": 94.015, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 25.0, "upward_expansion": 7.99, "deceleration": 57.51, "rotation_down": 53.19, "downward_expansion": 81.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.144667, 34.457273, 37.07098, 39.29122 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.790001, "trend_reference": 42.248606, "distance_from_trend": -0.129202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.121161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.129812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244559, "excess_performance": -0.251958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49451072, "relative_activity": 1.239672, "balance": 0.766158, "dry_up": 0.900819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095483, "annualized_volatility": 0.537432, "from_high_reference": -0.37517, "from_low_reference": 0.20465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.248606, "fair_value_reference": 35.121161, "structural_low": 30.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.001819, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 4.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.575105, "worst_return": -0.1721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049908, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.068113, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.710809, "worst_return": -0.336702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.182342, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.136757, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.893308, "worst_return": -0.31524, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.999639, "energy": 84.107956, "activity_lines": [ 33.905999, 35.47155, 38.848144, 40.981165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.75, "volume": 40842719, "typical_volume": 41310016.1, "trend": 42.899272, "fair_value": 35.094054, "relative_strength": -28.243434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.607535, "energy": 79.549328, "activity_lines": [ 32.872, 34.518292, 37.950391, 40.236933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.98, "volume": 29080162, "typical_volume": 39884359.5, "trend": 42.529272, "fair_value": 35.09841, "relative_strength": -21.649443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.408793, "energy": 72.760439, "activity_lines": [ 33.013333, 34.153495, 37.343495, 39.661496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.790001, "volume": 49451072, "typical_volume": 39890459.75, "trend": 42.248606, "fair_value": 35.121161, "relative_strength": -19.129812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.582769, "energy": 50.806256, "activity_lines": [ 34.144667, 34.457273, 37.07098, 39.29122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }