{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b952f773-f022-407a-b261-d5cb1c6395d5", "symbol": "SPR", "name": "Springfield Properties Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.63, "architecture_energy": 25.028, "architecture_maturity": 59.656, "architecture_confidence": 58.143, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.43, "rotation_up": 24.1, "upward_expansion": 13.44, "deceleration": 64.99, "rotation_down": 38.47, "downward_expansion": 63.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.002333, 1.004909, 1.002512, 1.031919 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.03, "trend_reference": 1.093417, "distance_from_trend": -0.057999, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.942649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.361623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207692, "excess_performance": -0.258928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059629, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092665, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.374672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471564, "relative_activity": 0.797737, "balance": 1.374672, "dry_up": 0.996238, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053382, "annualized_volatility": 0.351847, "from_high_reference": -0.248175, "from_low_reference": 0.173972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.093417, "fair_value_reference": 0.942649, "structural_low": 0.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.016344, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.015686, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.362747, "worst_return": -0.254238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010152, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.038497, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.581818, "worst_return": -0.262528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004724, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037693, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.260869, "worst_return": -0.276443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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23.791925, "activity_lines": [ 1.015333, 0.996773, 1.014655, 1.062608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.985, "volume": 460512, "typical_volume": 679724.3, "trend": 1.12125, "fair_value": 0.935604, "relative_strength": -15.516728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.38065, "energy": 26.500952, "activity_lines": [ 1.005667, 0.996818, 1.008857, 1.053247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.98, "volume": 1085188, "typical_volume": 671449.0, "trend": 1.112917, "fair_value": 0.937523, "relative_strength": -16.753893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.494735, "energy": 34.381778, "activity_lines": [ 0.993667, 0.996364, 1.003988, 1.044134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.995, "volume": 338348, "typical_volume": 636382.95, "trend": 1.101417, "fair_value": 0.939693, "relative_strength": -16.259117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.694221, "energy": 36.932192, "activity_lines": [ 0.991333, 0.998364, 1.001381, 1.036527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.03, "volume": 471564, "typical_volume": 591126.9, "trend": 1.093417, "fair_value": 0.942649, "relative_strength": -13.361623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.630459, "energy": 25.027901, "activity_lines": [ 1.002333, 1.004909, 1.002512, 1.031919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }