{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b956024d-e3a4-4eff-a0b2-e02873479006", "symbol": "002010", "name": "Transfar Zhilian Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.976, "architecture_energy": 48.549, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.225, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.16, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 44.49, "downward_expansion": 70.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 4.663103, 4.900514, 5.190955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.603453, "distance_from_trend": -0.139816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.003032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.003986, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277361, "excess_performance": -0.284761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067699, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.137501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118329302, "relative_activity": 1.317466, "balance": 0.137501, "dry_up": 1.292306, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061169, "annualized_volatility": 0.28217, "from_high_reference": -0.347767, "from_low_reference": 0.088036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.603453, "fair_value_reference": 5.003032, "structural_low": 4.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.01978, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": -0.021983, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.188571, "worst_return": -0.128205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.061761, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.021049, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.34819, "worst_return": -0.21134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123053, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007447, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.244216, "worst_return": -0.152866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.48, "volume": 106845689, "typical_volume": 95203794.05, "trend": 5.716453, "fair_value": 5.014159, "relative_strength": -24.797613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.729224, "energy": 84.792634, "activity_lines": [ 4.572155, 4.710453, 5.068803, 5.37958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.45, "volume": 125943362, "typical_volume": 92250599.65, "trend": 5.670787, "fair_value": 5.007792, "relative_strength": -24.771432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.648821, "energy": 71.425839, "activity_lines": [ 4.520652, 4.636458, 4.980167, 5.297873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.83, "volume": 113159914, "typical_volume": 90234236.6, "trend": 5.636453, "fair_value": 5.005383, "relative_strength": -16.322958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.298657, "energy": 61.933714, "activity_lines": [ 4.618, 4.646673, 4.937293, 5.243629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 118329302, "typical_volume": 89815843.8, "trend": 5.603453, "fair_value": 5.003032, "relative_strength": -20.003986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.976412, "energy": 48.549073, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 4.663103, 4.900514, 5.190955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }