{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b96395b3-f6a6-4536-8ae3-8882ba84f85c", "symbol": "FMN", "name": "Famien Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.142, "architecture_energy": 48.936, "architecture_maturity": 87.575, "architecture_confidence": 69.345, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.56, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 19.99, "deceleration": 66.75, "rotation_down": 50.14, "downward_expansion": 74.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.169667, 0.169091, 0.186048, 0.202882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.165, "trend_reference": 0.226, "distance_from_trend": -0.269912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.128205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.086945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.388889, "excess_performance": -0.452595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.675264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230869, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100698, "relative_activity": 0.195107, "balance": 1.058844, "dry_up": 0.922367, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117716, "annualized_volatility": 0.832239, "from_high_reference": -0.56, "from_low_reference": 0.833333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.226, "fair_value_reference": 0.128205, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010596, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.653846, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.066432, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.415385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.136364, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.099683, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { 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90.077016, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.176909, 0.202738, 0.219086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.15, "volume": 34382, "typical_volume": 528583.4, "trend": 0.233833, "fair_value": 0.127147, "relative_strength": -24.616031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.410614, "energy": 90.458273, "activity_lines": [ 0.158, 0.169727, 0.195857, 0.213441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.195, "volume": 1199461, "typical_volume": 555626.65, "trend": 0.2315, "fair_value": 0.127628, "relative_strength": -2.707983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.072926, "energy": 65.287635, "activity_lines": [ 0.169, 0.172364, 0.193881, 0.210935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.17, "volume": 569656, "typical_volume": 561853.65, "trend": 0.228333, "fair_value": 0.127885, "relative_strength": -17.705623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.117183, "energy": 54.681207, "activity_lines": [ 0.170333, 0.171091, 0.189976, 0.206968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.165, "volume": 100698, "typical_volume": 516116.7, "trend": 0.226, "fair_value": 0.128205, "relative_strength": -23.086945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.142402, "energy": 48.936483, "activity_lines": [ 0.169667, 0.169091, 0.186048, 0.202882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }