{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b965218c-387c-4c33-a219-95fcc1dd8abb", "symbol": "IQHI", "name": "NYLI MACKAY HIGH INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.972, "architecture_energy": 18.509, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.394, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.74, "rotation_up": 38.52, "upward_expansion": 57.3, "deceleration": 77.93, "rotation_down": 26.16, "downward_expansion": 20.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.748236, 25.752254, 25.736043, 25.695822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.865, "trend_reference": 25.661499, "distance_from_trend": 0.00793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.598653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.535035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00757, "excess_performance": -0.118055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00793, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005685, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04666, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5267, "relative_activity": 0.148175, "balance": 1.04666, "dry_up": 1.665996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009135, "annualized_volatility": 0.047466, "from_high_reference": -0.011784, "from_low_reference": 0.049278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.661499, "fair_value_reference": 23.598653, "structural_low": 24.890674, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.008188, "positive_rate": 0.703704, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": -0.005409, "regime_survival": 0.962963, "best_return": 0.016396, "worst_return": -0.011858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015656, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032739, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.044386, "worst_return": 0.001054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035538, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.080669, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.063128, "worst_return": 0.017308, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 29241.55, "trend": 25.617599, "fair_value": 23.435185, "relative_strength": -7.776422, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.802562, "energy": 32.407143, "activity_lines": [ 25.764554, 25.742751, 25.689019, 25.661325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.776857, "volume": 3756, "typical_volume": 28854.35, "trend": 25.634025, "fair_value": 23.468007, "relative_strength": -8.636673, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.608326, "energy": 24.844643, "activity_lines": [ 25.765431, 25.754066, 25.701978, 25.6716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.797037, "volume": 221351, "typical_volume": 39740.05, "trend": 25.647543, "fair_value": 23.500933, "relative_strength": -6.898419, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.014844, "energy": 22.430628, "activity_lines": [ 25.770133, 25.768051, 25.716865, 25.682117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.662536, "volume": 2960, "typical_volume": 39638.65, "trend": 25.650653, "fair_value": 23.532869, "relative_strength": -6.627326, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.438791, "energy": 14.914028, "activity_lines": [ 25.733385, 25.755946, 25.718412, 25.683084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.635, "volume": 7298, "typical_volume": 35659.9, "trend": 25.6519, "fair_value": 23.565203, "relative_strength": -7.466787, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.878953, "energy": 10.886828, "activity_lines": [ 25.700802, 25.732626, 25.716927, 25.682074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.865, "volume": 5267, "typical_volume": 35545.7, "trend": 25.661499, "fair_value": 23.598653, "relative_strength": -9.535035, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.971989, "energy": 18.509219, "activity_lines": [ 25.748236, 25.752254, 25.736043, 25.695822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }