{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b967044d-8f3e-4def-9b2b-2de3e3089d2c", "symbol": "PSIX", "name": "Power Solutions International, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.743, "architecture_energy": 54.481, "architecture_maturity": 57.942, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 9.16, "deceleration": 53.28, "rotation_down": 55.6, "downward_expansion": 84.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.296, 34.410545, 41.064476, 47.94957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.82, "trend_reference": 57.400667, "distance_from_trend": -0.288858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.567006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.875216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.495863, "excess_performance": -0.683316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.288858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.170708, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.468752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.495863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404172, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3658503, "relative_activity": 1.149327, "balance": 0.404172, "dry_up": 0.847915, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213836, "annualized_volatility": 1.41141, "from_high_reference": -0.658981, "from_low_reference": 0.614651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.400667, "fair_value_reference": 35.567006, "structural_low": 25.281, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.040863, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.03218, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.291751, "worst_return": -0.244199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.061971, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042565, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 2.32, "worst_return": -0.451073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.169106, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.147111, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.92511, "worst_return": -0.40339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.759528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.319668, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255485, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.378314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 37.082, 38.802182, 48.666857, 55.141011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.25, "volume": 2629489, "typical_volume": 3428838.15, "trend": 60.581, "fair_value": 34.986301, "relative_strength": -61.513473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.365146, "energy": 80.000394, "activity_lines": [ 34.457333, 36.603273, 46.306667, 53.101419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.96, "volume": 1722101, "typical_volume": 3237929.2, "trend": 59.396667, "fair_value": 35.162967, "relative_strength": -60.479936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.980943, "energy": 81.701853, "activity_lines": [ 32.434, 35.181818, 44.172429, 51.125871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.61, "volume": 2786142, "typical_volume": 3161348.45, "trend": 58.266, "fair_value": 35.32457, "relative_strength": -63.02474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.701624, "energy": 84.679798, "activity_lines": [ 30.317333, 33.492909, 41.920048, 49.075118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.82, "volume": 3658503, "typical_volume": 3183170.15, "trend": 57.400667, "fair_value": 35.567006, "relative_strength": -46.875216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.742783, "energy": 54.480837, "activity_lines": [ 33.296, 34.410545, 41.064476, 47.94957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }