{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b96a5231-8769-426e-ba56-d9da94da2711", "symbol": "TAFL", "name": "AB ACTIVE ETFS INC TAX-AWARE LONG MUNICIPAL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.452, "architecture_energy": 19.831, "architecture_maturity": 45.359, "architecture_confidence": 67.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.3, "rotation_up": 15.05, "upward_expansion": 23.06, "deceleration": 75.02, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 31.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.793739, 24.905636, 24.903965, 24.873361 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.825, "trend_reference": 24.835873, "distance_from_trend": -0.000438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.900408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.180276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003505, "excess_performance": -0.12212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038685, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003505, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.333485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101618, "relative_activity": 1.556208, "balance": 2.333485, "dry_up": 0.560105, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009022, "annualized_volatility": 0.044467, "from_high_reference": -0.016282, "from_low_reference": 0.069443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.835873, "fair_value_reference": 23.900408, "structural_low": 24.322233, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01059, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057138, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022832, "worst_return": -0.012736, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.016374, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037719, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031743, "worst_return": 0.001006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025527, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077513, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025527, "worst_return": 0.025527, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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24.827246, "fair_value": 23.882122, "relative_strength": -6.593776, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.506333, "energy": 47.794116, "activity_lines": [ 25.0736, 25.036325, 24.940006, 24.893084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.713435, "volume": 21028, "typical_volume": 62817.35, "trend": 24.833385, "fair_value": 23.88819, "relative_strength": -6.919401, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.886243, "energy": 10.631141, "activity_lines": [ 24.94657, 24.990763, 24.925842, 24.885742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.649659, "volume": 14389, "typical_volume": 61916.3, "trend": 24.83318, "fair_value": 23.893708, "relative_strength": -7.92354, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.833112, "energy": 21.263855, "activity_lines": [ 24.822726, 24.932164, 24.906281, 24.873888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.825, "volume": 101618, "typical_volume": 65298.45, "trend": 24.835873, "fair_value": 23.900408, "relative_strength": -10.180276, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.45174, "energy": 19.831461, "activity_lines": [ 24.793739, 24.905636, 24.903965, 24.873361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }