{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9722e07-6474-4fb7-8194-9542bb15607e", "symbol": "PEZ", "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT CONSUMER CYCLICALS MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.365, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.058, "architecture_energy": 13.501, "architecture_maturity": 17.93, "architecture_confidence": 56.218, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.78, "rotation_up": 33.77, "upward_expansion": 27.97, "deceleration": 63.27, "rotation_down": 33.7, "downward_expansion": 27.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.83224, 101.868791, 101.115534, 100.709855 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 103.8725, "trend_reference": 101.106077, "distance_from_trend": 0.027362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.741263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108077, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.110091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024956, "excess_performance": -0.21241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027362, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001189, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108077, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1720, "relative_activity": 0.581858, "balance": 0.450659, "dry_up": 0.879045, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026369, "annualized_volatility": 0.185209, "from_high_reference": -0.05842, "from_low_reference": 0.145019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.106077, "fair_value_reference": 93.741263, "structural_low": 92.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.029987, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004456, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.073722, "worst_return": -0.16356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010026, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.033043, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.077007, "worst_return": -0.150989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021398, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.095971, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.230478, "worst_return": -0.069975, 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49.465892, "activity_lines": [ 102.8429, 101.143123, 100.152739, 100.805607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 101.8951, "volume": 1235, "typical_volume": 2888.35, "trend": 101.95233, "fair_value": 92.780869, "relative_strength": -12.204166, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.347907, "energy": 47.252502, "activity_lines": [ 102.832795, 101.41581, 100.328826, 100.804988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 100.8764, "volume": 13877, "typical_volume": 3362.95, "trend": 101.792074, "fair_value": 92.96738, "relative_strength": -14.226597, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.078393, "energy": 39.316367, "activity_lines": [ 102.320684, 101.492201, 100.421812, 100.735573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.4129, "volume": 2693, "typical_volume": 3306.65, "trend": 101.609444, "fair_value": 93.150409, "relative_strength": -10.569716, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.015766, "energy": 11.8346, "activity_lines": [ 101.54923, 101.480053, 100.492192, 100.646594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.1803, "volume": 2794, "typical_volume": 3255.45, "trend": 101.379388, "fair_value": 93.323528, "relative_strength": -9.904947, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.069305, "energy": 22.871958, "activity_lines": [ 100.56756, 101.210649, 100.467667, 100.489875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.2195, "volume": 3187, "typical_volume": 3105.4, "trend": 101.302921, "fair_value": 93.521391, "relative_strength": -7.338554, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.036545, "energy": 10.958177, "activity_lines": [ 100.84702, 101.423087, 100.729634, 100.544076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.8725, "volume": 1720, "typical_volume": 2956.05, "trend": 101.106077, "fair_value": 93.741263, "relative_strength": -10.110091, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.057641, "energy": 13.500915, "activity_lines": [ 101.83224, 101.868791, 101.115534, 100.709855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }