{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b972a177-6da7-4c32-ba09-a5e20123ada5", "symbol": "KSM-F60", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) Russell 2000", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.74, "architecture_energy": 62.918, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.376, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.26, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.284667, 89.740727, 2210.432571, 3715.247183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 90.49, "trend_reference": 5450.313667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7206.009038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.772619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988886, "excess_performance": -1.017786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.07451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.781916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988886, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.482451, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73130, "relative_activity": 2.021699, "balance": 1.482451, "dry_up": 1.405161, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.540417, "annualized_volatility": 6.354556, "from_high_reference": -0.989414, "from_low_reference": 0.070888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5450.313667, "fair_value_reference": 7206.009038, "structural_low": 84.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.004553, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.010998, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.066909, "worst_return": -0.051797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025754, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.051451, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.084775, "worst_return": -0.988818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029059, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145944, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.085828, "worst_return": -0.133324, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.618566, "energy": 67.516432, "activity_lines": [ 89.998, 531.069636, 3085.154905, 4458.791892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.35, "volume": 61788, "typical_volume": 35909.0, "trend": 5722.330667, "fair_value": 7250.903333, "relative_strength": -98.802322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.195124, "energy": 66.830646, "activity_lines": [ 90.144667, 237.577455, 2629.390286, 4078.591742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.49, "volume": 73130, "typical_volume": 36172.55, "trend": 5450.313667, "fair_value": 7206.009038, "relative_strength": -98.772619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.7398, "energy": 62.917623, "activity_lines": [ 90.284667, 89.740727, 2210.432571, 3715.247183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }