{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b97867ee-abf2-4d0e-b7fd-a1bddb6b651b", "symbol": "PATINTLOG", "name": "Patel Integrated Logistics Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 90.549, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.541, "architecture_energy": 24.966, "architecture_maturity": 70.109, "architecture_confidence": 95.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.77, "rotation_up": 27.2, "upward_expansion": 59.83, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 28.31, "downward_expansion": 21.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.26, 14.584909, 13.893952, 13.103656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.43, "trend_reference": 12.398333, "distance_from_trend": 0.163866, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.272738, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164579, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.370533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.195526, "excess_performance": 0.239235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163866, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021167, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164579, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.103705, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.26631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265110, "relative_activity": 0.423204, "balance": 3.26631, "dry_up": 0.447261, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09089, "annualized_volatility": 0.520704, "from_high_reference": -0.146154, "from_low_reference": 0.801498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.398333, "fair_value_reference": 17.272738, "structural_low": 8.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009952, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.003547, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.298561, "worst_return": -0.067114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098153, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.063956, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.302013, "worst_return": -0.090552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.11584, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019464, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.345637, "worst_return": -0.437474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.125335, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.159166, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.600458, "worst_return": -0.36806, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13241, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.237862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03168, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.152482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132994, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120657, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.738567, "volume": 2674919, "typical_volume": 2463718.6, "trend": 13.015651, "fair_value": 13.440235, "relative_strength": 18.028992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.538019, "energy": 70.940835, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.535328, "energy": 89.060104, "activity_lines": [ 15.48, 14.634545, 13.229762, 12.642516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.39, "volume": 454619, "typical_volume": 679913.25, "trend": 12.358667, "fair_value": 17.289791, "relative_strength": 10.359438, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.927414, "energy": 76.499327, "activity_lines": [ 15.254, 14.726364, 13.44819, 12.775226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.82, "volume": 289939, "typical_volume": 672088.95, "trend": 12.360667, "fair_value": 17.292231, "relative_strength": 8.908348, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.424204, "energy": 50.238119, "activity_lines": [ 14.752667, 14.671818, 13.592619, 12.869505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 111052, "typical_volume": 639403.65, "trend": 12.36, "fair_value": 17.290025, "relative_strength": 7.195846, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.665676, "energy": 34.03295, "activity_lines": [ 14.353333, 14.601455, 13.728905, 12.970108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.43, "volume": 265110, "typical_volume": 626435.35, "trend": 12.398333, "fair_value": 17.272738, "relative_strength": 10.370533, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.540895, "energy": 24.965853, "activity_lines": [ 14.26, 14.584909, 13.893952, 13.103656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }