{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b97b3b18-511a-40b5-92ff-6e6b3071d242", "symbol": "000737", "name": "North Copper Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.22, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.873, "architecture_energy": 16.494, "architecture_maturity": 53.498, "architecture_confidence": 51.862, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.58, "rotation_up": 24.34, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 62.28, "rotation_down": 35.41, "downward_expansion": 62.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.436216, 13.33682, 13.612562, 13.94555 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.64, "trend_reference": 14.587943, "distance_from_trend": 0.003569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.277735, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.945182, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.248846, "excess_performance": -0.256245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029734, "read": "Falling" 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11.50485, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.021732, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.010779, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.873264, "worst_return": -0.201276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026867, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.022228, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 1.281996, "worst_return": -0.207607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039146, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.05373, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.904187, "worst_return": -0.223903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -15.664156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.2908, "energy": 70.865828, "activity_lines": [ 12.721902, 13.278727, 13.665156, 14.154464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.73, "volume": 268979127, "typical_volume": 195176587.7, "trend": 14.683276, "fair_value": 10.169691, "relative_strength": -11.372696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.727443, "energy": 61.264718, "activity_lines": [ 12.576683, 13.114212, 13.549974, 14.025306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.42, "volume": 190592214, "typical_volume": 190772137.05, "trend": 14.612943, "fair_value": 10.219677, "relative_strength": -5.182436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.023128, "energy": 49.273123, "activity_lines": [ 12.820131, 13.108062, 13.518792, 13.943805 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.64, "volume": 337430822, "typical_volume": 195731591.9, "trend": 14.587943, "fair_value": 10.277735, "relative_strength": -1.945182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.873325, "energy": 16.493865, "activity_lines": [ 13.436216, 13.33682, 13.612562, 13.94555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }