{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b97d1ffe-6b11-4215-ba8e-b3b4d6b00cb6", "symbol": "ED", "name": "Consolidated Edison Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.081, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.616, "architecture_energy": 8.396, "architecture_maturity": 13.412, "architecture_confidence": 71.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.43, "rotation_up": 34.52, "upward_expansion": 55.63, "deceleration": 75.91, "rotation_down": 23.43, "downward_expansion": 22.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.012667, 110.47, 109.523885, 109.536217 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 107.98, "trend_reference": 109.018654, "distance_from_trend": -0.009527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.864091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13826, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.441551, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022438, "excess_performance": -0.103187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001367, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022438, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11823774, "relative_activity": 1.093198, "balance": 1.00242, "dry_up": 1.041925, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042155, "annualized_volatility": 0.196349, "from_high_reference": -0.063213, "from_low_reference": 0.16185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.018654, "fair_value_reference": 94.864091, "structural_low": 102.82, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009677, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005301, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.102336, "worst_return": -0.053848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007527, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.158587, "worst_return": -0.105965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063065, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.001735, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.237945, "worst_return": 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"trend": 108.323988, "fair_value": 94.515568, "relative_strength": 0.863625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.147135, "energy": 55.826923, "activity_lines": [ 112.528667, 110.945818, 109.755429, 109.546993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.85, "volume": 12664197, "typical_volume": 10811224.15, "trend": 108.67303, "fair_value": 94.697011, "relative_strength": -3.674882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.711424, "energy": 25.658787, "activity_lines": [ 111.308667, 110.789818, 109.668996, 109.580929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.98, "volume": 11823774, "typical_volume": 10815763.5, "trend": 109.018654, "fair_value": 94.864091, "relative_strength": -7.441551, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.615987, "energy": 8.396376, "activity_lines": [ 110.012667, 110.47, 109.523885, 109.536217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }