{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b97fcf36-93e6-4052-9904-8a9e6024bd73", "symbol": "MSPL", "name": "MSP Steel & Power Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.144, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.122, "architecture_energy": 30.171, "architecture_maturity": 43.702, "architecture_confidence": 90.782, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.0, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 42.05, "deceleration": 82.17, "rotation_down": 50.4, "downward_expansion": 42.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.703999, 37.834727, 38.867809, 37.566193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.009998, "trend_reference": 35.665667, "distance_from_trend": 0.009654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.917949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.309681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179882, "excess_performance": 0.223591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023097, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179882, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.072025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7011597, "relative_activity": 1.335672, "balance": 1.072025, "dry_up": 0.764012, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083823, "annualized_volatility": 0.438281, "from_high_reference": -0.1875, "from_low_reference": 0.371809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.665667, "fair_value_reference": 31.917949, "structural_low": 26.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.005474, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.025209, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.255477, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.101167, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.042697, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.203246, "worst_return": -0.220358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009021, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.863399, "worst_return": -0.410466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050539, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012299, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", 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42.810001, "volume": 840535, "typical_volume": 6547199.5, "trend": 35.614333, "fair_value": 31.094615, "relative_strength": 24.774821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.022757, "energy": 54.019305, "activity_lines": [ 42.576668, 42.194728, 39.362096, 37.374839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.139999, "volume": 4210150, "typical_volume": 6295640.3, "trend": 35.706667, "fair_value": 31.290064, "relative_strength": 13.806131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.848859, "energy": 41.731354, "activity_lines": [ 41.516667, 41.769273, 39.589429, 37.602301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.509998, "volume": 2884623, "typical_volume": 5830772.45, "trend": 35.719, "fair_value": 31.469295, "relative_strength": 5.333001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.820445, "energy": 21.070307, "activity_lines": [ 39.710666, 40.799636, 39.530905, 37.654129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.369999, "volume": 1906265, "typical_volume": 5443749.8, "trend": 35.712333, "fair_value": 31.613974, "relative_strength": 4.178691, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.713978, "energy": 20.658625, "activity_lines": [ 37.855333, 39.725818, 39.341286, 37.631613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.310001, "volume": 4240197, "typical_volume": 5158174.9, "trend": 35.621667, "fair_value": 31.765, "relative_strength": -1.5432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.333832, "energy": 30.895311, "activity_lines": [ 36.243333, 38.553818, 39.031429, 37.54114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.009998, "volume": 7011597, "typical_volume": 5249488.55, "trend": 35.665667, "fair_value": 31.917949, "relative_strength": 2.309681, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.121991, "energy": 30.171118, "activity_lines": [ 35.703999, 37.834727, 38.867809, 37.566193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }