{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b9861466-9637-4e63-b411-114d98995be4",
    "symbol": "TYO",
    "name": "DIREXION DAILY 7-10 YEAR TREASURY BEAR 3X ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.895,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 62.783,
    "architecture_energy": 68.596,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.576,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.37,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.29,
        "rotation_up": 71.21,
        "upward_expansion": 91.03,
        "deceleration": 42.84,
        "rotation_down": 11.77,
        "downward_expansion": 15.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.5614,
        14.370888,
        14.187197,
        14.001516
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 14.5312,
    "trend_reference": 13.744926,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.057205,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.320715,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090872,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.330343,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.100326,
    "excess_performance": -0.025299,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057205,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031957,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090872,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048494,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033303,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050802,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100326,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.322998,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 858836,
      "relative_activity": 6.191099,
      "balance": 0.322998,
      "dry_up": 1.906903,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030088,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.15335,
      "from_high_reference": -0.020809,
      "from_low_reference": 0.167206
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.744926,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.320715,
      "structural_low": 12.513382,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 23,
        "median_return": 0.009692,
        "positive_rate": 0.521739,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.521739,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00163,
        "regime_survival": 0.782609,
        "best_return": 0.164103,
        "worst_return": -0.113644,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.065915,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012381,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.371402,
        "worst_return": -0.174597,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.019376,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.06108,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.206047,
        "worst_return": -0.076705,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.365196,
        "worst_return": -0.097455,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 119379.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "relative_strength": -4.559257,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 27.966535,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 108514.2,
        "trend": 13.511445,
        "fair_value": 13.243479,
        "relative_strength": -3.91847,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 109885.9,
        "trend": 13.548979,
        "fair_value": 13.260024,
        "relative_strength": -3.559616,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.922249,
        "energy": 31.457718,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.23,
        "volume": 70028,
        "typical_volume": 110995.55,
        "trend": 13.588796,
        "fair_value": 13.275848,
        "relative_strength": -2.044963,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.259836,
        "energy": 35.501874,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.131026,
          14.097788,
          13.97813,
          13.806402
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.665,
        "volume": 55148,
        "typical_volume": 109000.8,
        "trend": 13.64534,
        "fair_value": 13.2925,
        "relative_strength": 1.712608,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.772831,
        "energy": 62.097233,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.329993,
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          14.056088,
          13.875834
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.76,
        "volume": 74099,
        "typical_volume": 103304.7,
        "trend": 13.697792,
        "fair_value": 13.308667,
        "relative_strength": 1.414415,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.66605,
        "energy": 73.309485,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.517333,
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          14.135554,
          13.947748
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.5312,
        "volume": 858836,
        "typical_volume": 138721.1,
        "trend": 13.744926,
        "fair_value": 13.320715,
        "relative_strength": -3.330343,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.782767,
        "energy": 68.596463,
        "activity_lines": [
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          14.001516
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}