{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9895d81-29a8-48f5-99b6-f6dd15c77c7e", "symbol": "PRN", "name": "Invesco Dorsey Wright Industrials Momentum ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.033, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.961, "architecture_energy": 19.331, "architecture_maturity": 39.601, "architecture_confidence": 88.534, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.76, "rotation_up": 15.21, "upward_expansion": 41.81, "deceleration": 84.89, "rotation_down": 43.72, "downward_expansion": 35.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.023793, 228.047587, 232.038631, 226.993516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 221.9, "trend_reference": 219.347213, "distance_from_trend": 0.011638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 157.847068, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.083511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100531, "excess_performance": -0.086923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.405791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 338179, "relative_activity": 1.828637, "balance": 0.726118, "dry_up": 1.500661, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081769, "annualized_volatility": 0.257085, "from_high_reference": -0.155407, "from_low_reference": 0.422436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 219.347213, "fair_value_reference": 157.847068, "structural_low": 184.6501, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021583, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011068, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.177256, "worst_return": -0.133842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289934, "worst_return": -0.127563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100636, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.019774, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.390264, "worst_return": -0.27522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.165372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056019, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050155, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 154.122819, "relative_strength": 6.191664, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.711067, "energy": 45.851717, "activity_lines": [ 244.288393, 243.142656, 233.537415, 224.684681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 230.3669, "volume": 219576, "typical_volume": 150600.65, "trend": 214.02716, "fair_value": 154.922857, "relative_strength": 1.963845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.815228, "energy": 32.783295, "activity_lines": [ 239.718367, 241.117709, 234.16588, 225.855637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 220.99, "volume": 215008, "typical_volume": 158048.8, "trend": 215.484307, "fair_value": 155.654266, "relative_strength": 1.884756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.321621, "energy": 18.528509, "activity_lines": [ 232.39584, 237.431707, 233.824417, 226.304852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 223.81, "volume": 153730, "typical_volume": 157666.8, "trend": 216.95067, "fair_value": 156.403434, "relative_strength": 4.638878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.481652, "energy": 21.072639, "activity_lines": [ 227.58538, 234.595858, 233.688526, 226.841994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 215.52, "volume": 403182, "typical_volume": 173209.2, "trend": 218.12074, "fair_value": 157.106074, "relative_strength": 0.07121, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.889978, "energy": 19.097986, "activity_lines": [ 222.11292, 230.548498, 232.619243, 226.749693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 221.9, "volume": 338179, "typical_volume": 184935.05, "trend": 219.347213, "fair_value": 157.847068, "relative_strength": -2.083511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.961102, "energy": 19.330799, "activity_lines": [ 221.023793, 228.047587, 232.038631, 226.993516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }