{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b98bc7e5-73c3-4dcc-b74d-3b04ac7c9e12", "symbol": "O1TI34", "name": "Otis Worldwide Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.142, "architecture_energy": 51.098, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.572, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.72, "rotation_up": 28.21, "upward_expansion": 8.08, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 47.53, "downward_expansion": 79.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.893334, 37.095091, 37.21882, 38.512727 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.77, "trend_reference": 40.595557, "distance_from_trend": -0.069603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.551587, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.407999, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.139775, "excess_performance": -0.082726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079262, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032823, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.654915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.001633, "balance": 1.654915, "dry_up": 0.994122, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028938, "annualized_volatility": 0.233113, "from_high_reference": -0.227809, "from_low_reference": 0.065745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.595557, "fair_value_reference": 47.551587, "structural_low": 35.439999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004888, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.017439, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.080097, "worst_return": -0.097143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028717, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.053352, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.090982, "worst_return": -0.184918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005699, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.255724, "worst_return": -0.208324, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022995, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 37.621334, 37.299819, 37.820738, 39.432168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.5, "volume": 1863, "typical_volume": 2149.75, "trend": 41.334186, "fair_value": 47.6128, "relative_strength": -24.577796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.385506, "energy": 68.274265, "activity_lines": [ 36.852001, 37.024364, 37.465435, 39.028468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.5, "volume": 3002, "typical_volume": 2299.85, "trend": 40.92981, "fair_value": 47.575961, "relative_strength": -23.355493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.09776, "energy": 58.631616, "activity_lines": [ 36.608001, 36.945819, 37.257812, 38.716585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.77, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 1224.95, "trend": 40.595557, "fair_value": 47.551587, "relative_strength": -17.407999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.142432, "energy": 51.098202, "activity_lines": [ 36.893334, 37.095091, 37.21882, 38.512727 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }