{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b98e7f4a-32ae-4d77-b21e-81d067e143cc", "symbol": "MINT", "name": "Manulife Multifactor Developed International Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.479, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.521, "architecture_energy": 80.138, "architecture_maturity": 38.657, "architecture_confidence": 85.024, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 66.18, "upward_expansion": 90.5, "deceleration": 47.95, "rotation_down": 20.69, "downward_expansion": 17.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.482666, 48.197594, 47.567793, 47.065706 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.169998, "trend_reference": 46.516456, "distance_from_trend": 0.057045, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.106252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.859708, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062446, "excess_performance": -0.057975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057045, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035665, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040006, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062446, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.688889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.105125, "balance": 5.688889, "dry_up": 0.335085, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014266, "annualized_volatility": 0.135502, "from_high_reference": -0.003446, "from_low_reference": 0.229968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.516456, "fair_value_reference": 38.106252, "structural_low": 43.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.014877, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.005332, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.056978, "worst_return": -0.081701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024478, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.008561, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.125634, "worst_return": -0.038189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.050268, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.003187, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.153408, "worst_return": -0.094591, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 5365.0, "trend": 45.929307, "fair_value": 37.648192, "relative_strength": -1.238139, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.8691, "energy": 81.424714, "activity_lines": [ 47.986332, 47.52208, 46.860292, 46.503464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.82, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 5150.0, "trend": 46.077029, "fair_value": 37.760093, "relative_strength": -1.883535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.744588, "energy": 73.55817, "activity_lines": [ 47.974663, 47.646286, 47.000893, 46.625444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.810001, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 4620.0, "trend": 46.222123, "fair_value": 37.86855, "relative_strength": -2.061366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.183737, "energy": 69.558169, "activity_lines": [ 47.930458, 47.732357, 47.138971, 46.737249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.52, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 4145.0, "trend": 46.37679, "fair_value": 37.986221, "relative_strength": -0.114004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.272392, "energy": 67.113047, "activity_lines": [ 48.123334, 47.922691, 47.331573, 46.885499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.169998, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3805.0, "trend": 46.516456, "fair_value": 38.106252, "relative_strength": -1.859708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.520939, "energy": 80.138297, "activity_lines": [ 48.482666, 48.197594, 47.567793, 47.065706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }