{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9984e3f-a7a7-4dbe-8a81-dc9567617b8e", "symbol": "ORCA", "name": "Orcadian Energy Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.172, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.801, "architecture_energy": 28.731, "architecture_maturity": 22.046, "architecture_confidence": 66.81, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.12, "rotation_up": 59.08, "upward_expansion": 37.89, "deceleration": 44.77, "rotation_down": 19.69, "downward_expansion": 19.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.169167, 0.155773, 0.15121, 0.152533 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.155, "trend_reference": 0.157033, "distance_from_trend": -0.012948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.117212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.298132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101449, "excess_performance": -0.152685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032981, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.751753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 413714, "relative_activity": 0.516771, "balance": 4.751753, "dry_up": 3.489512, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196283, "annualized_volatility": 0.897878, "from_high_reference": -0.38, "from_low_reference": 0.9375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.157033, "fair_value_reference": 0.117212, "structural_low": 0.1162, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.21131, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.211639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.54386, "worst_return": -0.236538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035088, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.201923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.153846, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.220145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041667, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.1225, "volume": 90626, "typical_volume": 411622.45, "trend": 0.151617, "fair_value": 0.113567, "relative_strength": -12.483131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.689485, "energy": 58.456294, "activity_lines": [ 0.123, 0.128836, 0.140379, 0.14659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.19, "volume": 3011017, "typical_volume": 505383.6, "trend": 0.153533, "fair_value": 0.114593, "relative_strength": 33.219989, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.044441, "energy": 7.943211, "activity_lines": [ 0.145167, 0.138918, 0.144457, 0.149067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2, "volume": 6694199, "typical_volume": 768165.55, "trend": 0.1557, "fair_value": 0.115715, "relative_strength": 36.904456, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.769899, "energy": 29.796086, "activity_lines": [ 0.166333, 0.150091, 0.149369, 0.152065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.165, "volume": 1055530, "typical_volume": 811382.75, "trend": 0.157033, "fair_value": 0.116458, "relative_strength": 10.881096, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.497148, "energy": 26.618117, "activity_lines": [ 0.170833, 0.154045, 0.150771, 0.152665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.155, "volume": 413714, "typical_volume": 800574.6, "trend": 0.157033, "fair_value": 0.117212, "relative_strength": 3.298132, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.800864, "energy": 28.730962, "activity_lines": [ 0.169167, 0.155773, 0.15121, 0.152533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }