{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9a13c2c-173d-48db-8eeb-b28f5c44115c", "symbol": "SWAG", "name": "Software Acquisition Group III Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.105, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.799, "architecture_energy": 17.942, "architecture_maturity": 41.386, "architecture_confidence": 78.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.08, "rotation_up": 20.91, "upward_expansion": 51.61, "deceleration": 92.72, "rotation_down": 28.78, "downward_expansion": 17.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.993333, 2.044545, 1.993238, 1.930366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.96, "trend_reference": 1.883, "distance_from_trend": 0.040892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.43958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361508, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.496264, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094972, "excess_performance": -0.092482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223161, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094972, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.159531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127691, "relative_activity": 0.515649, "balance": 2.159531, "dry_up": 0.549742, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121888, "annualized_volatility": 0.40698, "from_high_reference": -0.44, "from_low_reference": 0.430657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.883, "fair_value_reference": 1.43958, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005698, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127778, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.152318, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.165107, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.231638, "worst_return": -0.284404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.188461, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.24392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.118644, "worst_return": -0.258278, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.271271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.403226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.08, "volume": 103678, "typical_volume": 255846.85, "trend": 1.854667, "fair_value": 1.422401, "relative_strength": -2.539662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.939614, "energy": 43.18127, "activity_lines": [ 2.126, 2.092, 1.945, 1.895871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.1, "volume": 78671, "typical_volume": 248820.35, "trend": 1.864667, "fair_value": 1.42708, "relative_strength": 2.433974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.341102, "energy": 37.434107, "activity_lines": [ 2.115333, 2.105818, 1.968476, 1.911699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.98, "volume": 129841, "typical_volume": 248849.6, "trend": 1.874667, "fair_value": 1.431247, "relative_strength": -2.025784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.063366, "energy": 24.098906, "activity_lines": [ 2.064, 2.088364, 1.978857, 1.91914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.97, "volume": 208331, "typical_volume": 250767.2, "trend": 1.881333, "fair_value": 1.435349, "relative_strength": -3.1906, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.517131, "energy": 17.939418, "activity_lines": [ 2.022, 2.067455, 1.986857, 1.92529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.96, "volume": 127691, "typical_volume": 247631.6, "trend": 1.883, "fair_value": 1.43958, "relative_strength": -8.496264, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.798586, "energy": 17.942092, "activity_lines": [ 1.993333, 2.044545, 1.993238, 1.930366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }