{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9a4da56-b979-48c3-900e-60fe29cd0348", "symbol": "YPF", "name": "YPF Sociedad Anonima", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.45, "architecture_energy": 37.648, "architecture_maturity": 13.82, "architecture_confidence": 80.221, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.51, "rotation_up": 52.23, "upward_expansion": 75.19, "deceleration": 62.12, "rotation_down": 20.86, "downward_expansion": 6.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.473333, 49.615455, 48.751571, 46.910151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.16, "trend_reference": 44.14, "distance_from_trend": 0.113729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.808526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.649193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.170746, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.288936, "excess_performance": 0.163311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113729, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118025, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.649193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131707, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057807, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.288936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.712691, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5348854, "relative_activity": 0.562476, "balance": 2.712691, "dry_up": 0.603204, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094268, "annualized_volatility": 0.423014, "from_high_reference": -0.144895, "from_low_reference": 1.154251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.14, "fair_value_reference": 29.808526, "structural_low": 33.42, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.010854, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": 0.0041, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.345976, "worst_return": -0.179537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.043949, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.010137, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.911626, "worst_return": -0.426641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.223478, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.127488, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.869369, "worst_return": -0.095146, "sufficient": true }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.58, "volume": 7833421, "typical_volume": 10821743.5, "trend": 42.109667, "fair_value": 28.884487, "relative_strength": 14.539463, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.22979, "energy": 24.924309, "activity_lines": [ 47.218667, 48.722364, 46.933, 44.887161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.68, "volume": 7985888, "typical_volume": 10865059.95, "trend": 42.581, "fair_value": 29.103846, "relative_strength": 20.73955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.546735, "energy": 26.710649, "activity_lines": [ 47.535333, 48.951818, 47.393571, 45.37557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.4, "volume": 4924555, "typical_volume": 10643463.05, "trend": 43.095667, "fair_value": 29.339808, "relative_strength": 24.921831, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.436403, "energy": 26.342469, "activity_lines": [ 48.839333, 49.361091, 47.949905, 45.944538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.54, "volume": 4685333, "typical_volume": 10227725.55, "trend": 43.637333, "fair_value": 29.58641, "relative_strength": 25.592754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.198495, "energy": 42.052864, "activity_lines": [ 50.46, 49.836909, 48.545714, 46.553849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.16, "volume": 5348854, "typical_volume": 9509476.85, "trend": 44.14, "fair_value": 29.808526, "relative_strength": 13.170746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.449754, "energy": 37.64817, "activity_lines": [ 50.473333, 49.615455, 48.751571, 46.910151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }