{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9a6e2f4-a248-4826-b835-0d64bc07fbdb", "symbol": "252670", "name": "Samsung Kodex F Kospi 200 Inverse2x ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.412, "architecture_energy": 42.543, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.154, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.54, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 25.17, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 61.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.666667, 87.927273, 100.033333, 135.544086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 97.0, "trend_reference": 195.7, "distance_from_trend": -0.504343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1639.49359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.940835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -87.410972, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.746736, "excess_performance": -0.976565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.504343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.502963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.940835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.87411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06144, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.746736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.015369, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45204372975, "relative_activity": 1.531535, "balance": 1.015369, "dry_up": 1.651205, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.263283, "annualized_volatility": 1.014316, "from_high_reference": -0.930266, "from_low_reference": 0.672414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 195.7, "fair_value_reference": 1639.49359, "structural_low": 58.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.063636, "positive_rate": 0.228571, "directional_follow_through": 0.771429, "median_excess_return": -0.086534, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.478261, "worst_return": -0.502959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.146954, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.210658, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.23337, "worst_return": -0.723247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.109181, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.139759, "worst_return": -0.723469, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.529308, "energy": 61.478079, "activity_lines": [ 84.666667, 83.290909, 115.066667, 161.227957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.0, "volume": 39550396405, "typical_volume": 25762637415.25, "trend": 225.766667, "fair_value": 1670.653846, "relative_strength": -89.015524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.649759, "energy": 55.173025, "activity_lines": [ 92.466667, 86.036364, 109.966667, 152.058065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.0, "volume": 68563871973, "typical_volume": 27996543863.9, "trend": 209.2, "fair_value": 1655.153846, "relative_strength": -90.477127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.750022, "energy": 49.29826, "activity_lines": [ 91.0, 85.436364, 103.804762, 142.782796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.0, "volume": 45204372975, "typical_volume": 29515739112.65, "trend": 195.7, "fair_value": 1639.49359, "relative_strength": -87.410972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.411568, "energy": 42.543497, "activity_lines": [ 93.666667, 87.927273, 100.033333, 135.544086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }