{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9abfeeb-4553-4fda-980a-8030fedf67f2", "symbol": "CNEW", "name": "VanEck New China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.52, "architecture_energy": 21.366, "architecture_maturity": 97.897, "architecture_confidence": 78.704, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.69, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 15.1, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 27.85, "downward_expansion": 62.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.985333, 13.930218, 14.063533, 14.187983 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.04, "trend_reference": 14.4084, "distance_from_trend": -0.025568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.400833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.599387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064374, "excess_performance": -0.235266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023526, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064374, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.50468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156, "relative_activity": 0.027741, "balance": 1.50468, "dry_up": 2.397503, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021751, "annualized_volatility": 0.140331, "from_high_reference": -0.114084, "from_low_reference": 0.033417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.4084, "fair_value_reference": 13.400833, "structural_low": 13.586, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.008012, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.036191, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.244122, "worst_return": -0.070882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017162, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.103596, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.222346, "worst_return": -0.076859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011133, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.231811, "worst_return": -0.125242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022245, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022607, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", 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13.403885, "relative_strength": -16.049204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.553109, "energy": 50.490442, "activity_lines": [ 13.911733, 13.950655, 14.13661, 14.289665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.824, "volume": 415, "typical_volume": 2961.1, "trend": 14.482533, "fair_value": 13.403667, "relative_strength": -17.694052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.710869, "energy": 45.644445, "activity_lines": [ 13.8936, 13.908836, 14.096571, 14.245243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.01, "volume": 53326, "typical_volume": 5621.55, "trend": 14.455, "fair_value": 13.402154, "relative_strength": -16.77293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.680097, "energy": 31.614549, "activity_lines": [ 13.943733, 13.913818, 14.076676, 14.214757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.04, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 5623.35, "trend": 14.4084, "fair_value": 13.400833, "relative_strength": -18.599387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.520177, "energy": 21.366491, "activity_lines": [ 13.985333, 13.930218, 14.063533, 14.187983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }