{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9ae4444-5b2f-4aab-be89-c443c7b3c98a", "symbol": "NVU", "name": "Nanoveu Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.505, "architecture_energy": 16.84, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 54.624, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.2, "rotation_up": 42.3, "upward_expansion": 24.08, "deceleration": 38.23, "rotation_down": 21.19, "downward_expansion": 55.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0596, 0.055691, 0.05641, 0.058953 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.063, "trend_reference": 0.064067, "distance_from_trend": -0.016649, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.045904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.109967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148649, "excess_performance": -0.212354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148649, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6243128, "relative_activity": 0.827907, "balance": 0.595697, "dry_up": 1.070933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163004, "annualized_volatility": 0.756284, "from_high_reference": -0.515385, "from_low_reference": 0.575 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.064067, "fair_value_reference": 0.045904, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.047727, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.053766, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.44, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100238, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.181818, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.189799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.241933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.444444, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.93582, "energy": 50.915575, "activity_lines": [ 0.047467, 0.049764, 0.055033, 0.059473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.061, "volume": 10948040, "typical_volume": 7720960.85, "trend": 0.065933, "fair_value": 0.045372, "relative_strength": -17.793318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.131696, "energy": 31.773524, "activity_lines": [ 0.051267, 0.051327, 0.055238, 0.059097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.066, "volume": 10679603, "typical_volume": 7772325.7, "trend": 0.0653, "fair_value": 0.045647, "relative_strength": -12.959907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.672397, "energy": 11.971436, "activity_lines": [ 0.056467, 0.053836, 0.055967, 0.059101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.063, "volume": 6243128, "typical_volume": 7540853.9, "trend": 0.064067, "fair_value": 0.045904, "relative_strength": -19.109967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.504767, "energy": 16.840083, "activity_lines": [ 0.0596, 0.055691, 0.05641, 0.058953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }