{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9bb7bef-e478-4ef9-ada9-0036dc78ff25", "symbol": "FULC", "name": "Fulcrum Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.617, "architecture_energy": 57.253, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.522, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.76, "rotation_up": 27.55, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.06, "rotation_down": 48.11, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.715333, 3.700364, 4.593429, 5.473828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.89, "trend_reference": 6.792667, "distance_from_trend": -0.427324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.527436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.06914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.600616, "excess_performance": -0.78807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.427324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.570691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.600616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860656, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8367639, "relative_activity": 0.875293, "balance": 0.860656, "dry_up": 0.789538, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194105, "annualized_volatility": 1.052688, "from_high_reference": -0.752857, "from_low_reference": 0.374558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.792667, "fair_value_reference": 6.527436, "structural_low": 2.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.057784, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": 0.030342, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 2.465432, "worst_return": -0.473609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.094929, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.076387, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.756972, "worst_return": -0.536424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.440325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.375271, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.188776, "worst_return": -0.512842, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 3.671333, 4.002182, 5.197667, 6.153527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.72, "volume": 5173336, "typical_volume": 9475751.4, "trend": 7.236, "fair_value": 6.532692, "relative_strength": -57.474092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.381288, "energy": 64.12855, "activity_lines": [ 3.678667, 3.845636, 4.974714, 5.909785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.58, "volume": 7579186, "typical_volume": 9624757.35, "trend": 6.991333, "fair_value": 6.530321, "relative_strength": -58.854239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.943538, "energy": 64.115412, "activity_lines": [ 3.638, 3.717636, 4.759619, 5.673914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.89, "volume": 8367639, "typical_volume": 9559813.0, "trend": 6.792667, "fair_value": 6.527436, "relative_strength": -57.06914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.616797, "energy": 57.252653, "activity_lines": [ 3.715333, 3.700364, 4.593429, 5.473828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }