{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9bcaa7f-ae3a-4b9d-ba42-a3c71869d281", "symbol": "KOTARISUG", "name": "Kothari Sugars and Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.517, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.756, "architecture_energy": 16.572, "architecture_maturity": 33.301, "architecture_confidence": 67.203, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.31, "rotation_up": 39.72, "upward_expansion": 47.94, "deceleration": 72.77, "rotation_down": 23.95, "downward_expansion": 29.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.506667, 25.443818, 25.588, 25.487978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.43, "trend_reference": 25.382667, "distance_from_trend": 0.041262, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.115589, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.372441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.087825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015367, "excess_performance": 0.059076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.372441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015367, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.367382, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331415, "relative_activity": 1.615562, "balance": 1.367382, "dry_up": 0.949141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064292, "annualized_volatility": 0.276187, "from_high_reference": -0.298567, "from_low_reference": 0.174667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.382667, "fair_value_reference": 42.115589, "structural_low": 22.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.0011, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.023161, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.169054, "worst_return": -0.171762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012606, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.03673, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.256966, "worst_return": -0.214788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.093066, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.447369, "worst_return": -0.239261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232969, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067802, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.297543, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 25.879999, "volume": 172986, "typical_volume": 212809.65, "trend": 25.651, "fair_value": 42.61058, "relative_strength": -4.868262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.48733, "energy": 6.748211, "activity_lines": [ 25.623333, 25.507818, 25.630952, 25.544215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.049999, "volume": 151316, "typical_volume": 210745.2, "trend": 25.568, "fair_value": 42.486652, "relative_strength": -7.674474, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.024881, "energy": 5.055204, "activity_lines": [ 25.467333, 25.405454, 25.597714, 25.505441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.450001, "volume": 157787, "typical_volume": 202759.3, "trend": 25.468333, "fair_value": 42.370509, "relative_strength": -7.063526, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.668102, "energy": 16.37839, "activity_lines": [ 25.106, 25.235818, 25.506619, 25.433312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.280001, "volume": 138306, "typical_volume": 199010.6, "trend": 25.394333, "fair_value": 42.244451, "relative_strength": -5.872667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.088398, "energy": 13.670322, "activity_lines": [ 25.125334, 25.230727, 25.495714, 25.421161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.43, "volume": 331415, "typical_volume": 205139.2, "trend": 25.382667, "fair_value": 42.115589, "relative_strength": -2.087825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.756313, "energy": 16.572247, "activity_lines": [ 25.506667, 25.443818, 25.588, 25.487978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }