{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9c1d741-ce65-4a82-ab91-6f1daea85f76", "symbol": "6729", "name": "Luminescence Technology Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.542, "architecture_energy": 75.092, "architecture_maturity": 22.107, "architecture_confidence": 84.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.72, "rotation_up": 9.76, "upward_expansion": 16.71, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 78.54, "downward_expansion": 94.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.313333, 46.610909, 50.350952, 52.475807 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 41.0, "trend_reference": 52.995, "distance_from_trend": -0.226342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.401019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.580473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247706, "excess_performance": -0.689078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.226342, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.628804, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111862, "relative_activity": 0.181454, "balance": 0.596728, "dry_up": 0.347462, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174015, "annualized_volatility": 0.64875, "from_high_reference": -0.506024, "from_low_reference": 0.778742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.995, "fair_value_reference": 28.401019, "structural_low": 38.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.117936, "worst_return": -0.177184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05124, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036855, "worst_return": -0.139335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.048474, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.12041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299754, "worst_return": -0.202806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.404577, 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"2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060086, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004115, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.602643, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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42.700001, "volume": 393189, "typical_volume": 807781.1, "trend": 52.751667, "fair_value": 28.051896, "relative_strength": -27.924967, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.257382, "energy": 50.549334, "activity_lines": [ 47.88, 50.152727, 52.950952, 53.933656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.0, "volume": 200028, "typical_volume": 665825.0, "trend": 52.845, "fair_value": 28.23007, "relative_strength": -30.733019, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.018606, "energy": 60.149831, "activity_lines": [ 45.346667, 48.3, 51.635714, 53.24 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.0, "volume": 111862, "typical_volume": 616475.7, "trend": 52.995, "fair_value": 28.401019, "relative_strength": -34.580473, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.542068, "energy": 75.091671, "activity_lines": [ 43.313333, 46.610909, 50.350952, 52.475807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }