{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9c6c546-c062-4b23-a0e1-d64b84ab1cbd", "symbol": "300141", "name": "Suzhou Industrial Park Heshun Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.705, "architecture_energy": 43.661, "architecture_maturity": 79.931, "architecture_confidence": 58.488, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.67, "rotation_up": 26.09, "upward_expansion": 18.33, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 44.41, "downward_expansion": 68.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.832667, 9.782182, 10.593619, 11.465828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.22, "trend_reference": 12.785667, "distance_from_trend": -0.200667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.895255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.833992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323627, "excess_performance": -0.331026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124324, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.324558, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74694573, "relative_activity": 2.206559, "balance": 1.324558, "dry_up": 2.069497, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114707, "annualized_volatility": 0.433625, "from_high_reference": -0.517925, "from_low_reference": 0.328999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.785667, "fair_value_reference": 9.895255, "structural_low": 7.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.040676, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.006492, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.143063, "worst_return": -0.296667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093943, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.041655, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.207792, "worst_return": -0.288461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.17955, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.050145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.405195, "worst_return": -0.174246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-28.411757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.043932, "energy": 88.725895, "activity_lines": [ 9.739333, 10.357636, 11.458619, 12.323871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.59, "volume": 26995000, "typical_volume": 29563059.45, "trend": 13.029333, "fair_value": 9.900847, "relative_strength": -28.563814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.23219, "energy": 91.349731, "activity_lines": [ 9.308, 9.915091, 11.093714, 12.029763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.85, "volume": 67786533, "typical_volume": 29525346.1, "trend": 12.957667, "fair_value": 9.89736, "relative_strength": -18.190228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.177911, "energy": 63.656242, "activity_lines": [ 9.416667, 9.788909, 10.883429, 11.824645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.04, "volume": 110743404, "typical_volume": 31768668.2, "trend": 12.864, "fair_value": 9.892595, "relative_strength": -15.197492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.864661, "energy": 55.251841, "activity_lines": [ 9.613333, 9.746909, 10.719667, 11.636409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.22, "volume": 74694573, "typical_volume": 33851156.85, "trend": 12.785667, "fair_value": 9.895255, "relative_strength": -17.833992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.704952, "energy": 43.661195, "activity_lines": [ 9.832667, 9.782182, 10.593619, 11.465828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }