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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 53.882, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.049, "architecture_energy": 54.665, "architecture_maturity": 9.913, "architecture_confidence": 83.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.8, "rotation_up": 15.58, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 43.78, "rotation_down": 64.89, "downward_expansion": 85.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.409335, 98.744001, 101.586058, 103.12001 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 96.620003, "trend_reference": 104.330929, "distance_from_trend": -0.073908, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.540074, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.652908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116494, "excess_performance": -0.290741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.121766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 1.020148, "balance": 4.121766, "dry_up": 1.03545, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050977, "annualized_volatility": 0.290209, "from_high_reference": -0.165774, "from_low_reference": 0.183622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.330929, "fair_value_reference": 77.540074, 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198.9, "trend": 104.114304, "fair_value": 76.229901, "relative_strength": -16.272565, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.74835, "energy": 49.881884, "activity_lines": [ 100.304, 101.739637, 104.367661, 104.802216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.620003, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 202.4, "trend": 104.268426, "fair_value": 76.587792, "relative_strength": -12.721879, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.147319, "energy": 38.526397, "activity_lines": [ 100.465335, 101.371274, 103.980388, 104.641293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.779999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 182.55, "trend": 104.30984, "fair_value": 76.901365, "relative_strength": -18.630772, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.327078, "energy": 69.60276, "activity_lines": [ 98.800001, 100.117455, 103.06354, 104.093653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.980003, "volume": 412, "typical_volume": 197.15, "trend": 104.381631, "fair_value": 77.225761, "relative_strength": -17.289452, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.394206, "energy": 61.774309, "activity_lines": [ 97.969335, 99.402183, 102.311424, 103.62076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.620003, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 196.05, "trend": 104.330929, "fair_value": 77.540074, "relative_strength": -19.652908, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.049083, "energy": 54.664767, "activity_lines": [ 97.409335, 98.744001, 101.586058, 103.12001 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }