{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9ce0012-0a6d-4c47-831d-daaeba1032eb", "symbol": "MSV", "name": "Mitchell Services Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.411, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.673, "architecture_energy": 29.894, "architecture_maturity": 16.987, "architecture_confidence": 87.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.63, "rotation_up": 53.02, "upward_expansion": 77.98, "deceleration": 56.72, "rotation_down": 21.78, "downward_expansion": 4.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.514, 0.508818, 0.502833, 0.492608 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.515, "trend_reference": 0.469018, "distance_from_trend": 0.098038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.337944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.523921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 24.892299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.444677, "excess_performance": 0.380972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098038, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167555, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.523921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.248923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.444677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2121854, "relative_activity": 1.035269, "balance": 0.772808, "dry_up": 1.044258, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097834, "annualized_volatility": 0.677163, "from_high_reference": -0.104348, "from_low_reference": 1.224805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.469018, "fair_value_reference": 0.337944, "structural_low": 0.37037, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.022659, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.657143, "worst_return": -0.255172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023647, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.005125, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.596524, "worst_return": -0.164835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.112548, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.132033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.596524, "worst_return": -0.186812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 2109653.9, "trend": 0.4625, "fair_value": 0.336612, "relative_strength": 22.818413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.905198, "energy": 38.906524, "activity_lines": [ 0.516, 0.506455, 0.500452, 0.489221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.515, "volume": 2121854, "typical_volume": 2049567.7, "trend": 0.469018, "fair_value": 0.337944, "relative_strength": 24.892299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.673358, "energy": 29.893959, "activity_lines": [ 0.514, 0.508818, 0.502833, 0.492608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }