{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b9ce8775-0767-415e-b658-aa522d204cd9",
    "symbol": "GYRO",
    "name": "Gyrodyne Company of America Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "model_version": "ta-0.1.0",
    "as_of_week": "2026-07-31",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "history_weeks": 344,
    "chart_window_weeks": 156,
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "stage_color": "red",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "stage_age_weeks": 23,
    "hard_stage_exit": false,
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "transition_score": 14.946,
    "is_transition_watch": false,
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "composite_score": 77.018,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_color": "red",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -85.455,
    "architecture_energy": 91.241,
    "architecture_maturity": 86.079,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_age_weeks": 29,
    "is_reacceleration_watch": false,
    "architecture": {
      "regime": "downward_expansion",
      "label": "Downward Expansion",
      "color": "red",
      "modifier": "Established contraction",
      "gate": "down",
      "direction": -85.455,
      "energy": 91.241,
      "maturity": 86.079,
      "confidence": 96,
      "confirmation": 99.984,
      "age_weeks": 29,
      "candidate": null,
      "candidate_weeks": 0,
      "hard_reversal": false,
      "reacceleration_watch": false,
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 3.33,
        "rotation_up": 24.9,
        "upward_expansion": 20.6,
        "deceleration": 37.83,
        "rotation_down": 68.25,
        "downward_expansion": 96.27
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      "activity_lines": {
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        "10": 5.934978,
        "20": 6.464948,
        "30": 6.957752
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      "activity_slopes": {
        "5": -1.231072,
        "10": -1.729079,
        "20": -1.808348,
        "30": -1.690401
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      "bullish_order": 0.0,
      "bearish_order": 1.0,
      "fan_width_atr": 3.747743,
      "fan_width_change_4": 0.581895,
      "fan_width_percentile": 1.0,
      "fast_slow_gap_atr": -2.69773,
      "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.2693,
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333,
      "current_fan_distance_atr": -0.784525,
      "accepted_above": 0.0,
      "accepted_below": 0.833333,
      "crossing_density": 0.0
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    "interpretation": {
      "headline": "The primary weekly trend is declining.",
      "body": "Price below a falling 30-week average with weak relative performance defines the defensive state. Bottom-fishing evidence is kept separate from a confirmed Stage 1 repair.",
      "phase": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
      "transition": "Stage 4 decline intact",
      "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 15/100."
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    "latest_close": 5.5,
    "sma_30": 7.614923,
    "distance_from_sma_30": -0.277734,
    "sma_30_slope": -0.128176,
    "fair_value": 8.748275,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371305,
    "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.211989,
    "is_fair_value_repair": false,
    "mansfield_rs": -41.61075,
    "mansfield_rs_change_13": -17.1032,
    "range_position_52": 0.0,
    "returns": {
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      "26": -0.371429,
      "52": -0.417373
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    "relative_returns": {
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      "52": -0.632208
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    "stage_scores": {
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      "2": 0.0,
      "3": 17.34,
      "4": 100.0
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    "evidence": [
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        "label": "Price vs 30-week average",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.277734,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "30-week slope",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.128176,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.371305,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "13-week Fair Value gap",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.211989,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.416107,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "13-week RS change",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.171032,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "26-week price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.371429,
        "read": "Negative"
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      {
        "label": "13-week volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.067691,
        "read": "Supply-led"
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      "dry_up_ratio": 1.281625,
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      "breakout_distance": -0.402823
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      "annualized_volatility": 0.279467,
      "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.541667,
      "advance_from_52_low": 0.0
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      "trend_reference": 7.614923,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.748275,
      "support_reference": 5.5,
      "range_low": 5.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising 30-week average with improving RS is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
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        "close": 5.8,
        "volume": 7993,
        "sma_30": 7.862243,
        "fair_value_history": 8.808531,
        "mansfield_rs": -39.408933,
        "stage": 4,
        "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
        "architecture_gate": "down",
        "architecture_direction": -82.133323,
        "architecture_energy": 78.592081,
        "activity_5": 6.047667,
        "activity_10": 6.230047,
        "activity_20": 6.766955,
        "activity_30": 7.241741
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-24",
        "open": 5.7001,
        "high": 5.85,
        "low": 5.7,
        "close": 5.7,
        "volume": 14358,
        "sma_30": 7.73959,
        "fair_value_history": 8.779685,
        "mansfield_rs": -39.560587,
        "stage": 4,
        "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
        "architecture_gate": "down",
        "architecture_direction": -81.13669,
        "architecture_energy": 71.565871,
        "activity_5": 5.917667,
        "activity_10": 6.08524,
        "activity_20": 6.61819,
        "activity_30": 7.102241
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-31",
        "open": 5.6,
        "high": 5.68,
        "low": 5.5,
        "close": 5.5,
        "volume": 8041,
        "sma_30": 7.614923,
        "fair_value_history": 8.748275,
        "mansfield_rs": -41.61075,
        "stage": 4,
        "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
        "architecture_gate": "down",
        "architecture_direction": -85.455399,
        "architecture_energy": 91.240748,
        "activity_5": 5.752333,
        "activity_10": 5.934978,
        "activity_20": 6.464948,
        "activity_30": 6.957752
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV",
      "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier",
      "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor",
      "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one",
      "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.",
      "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.",
      "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.",
      "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability"
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": -0.003125,
        "positive_rate": 0.45,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020613,
        "stage_survival": 0.875,
        "best_return": 0.314712,
        "worst_return": -0.192937,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.003788,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.461538,
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        "stage_survival": 0.692308,
        "best_return": 0.257862,
        "worst_return": -0.207865,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.010708,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.231818,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "weeks": 52,
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        "median_return": 0.01212,
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        "worst_return": -0.093585,
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    ],
    "stage_ledger": [
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        "stage": 2,
        "name": "Advancing",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "weeks": 5,
        "return": -0.099099
      },
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        "return": 0.082367
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        "stage": 2,
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        "weeks": 10,
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      },
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
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        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.001712
      },
      {
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        "name": "Basing",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "weeks": 3,
        "return": -0.026573
      },
      {
        "stage": 4,
        "name": "Declining",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "weeks": 7,
        "return": -0.032163
      },
      {
        "stage": 2,
        "name": "Advancing",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "weeks": 1,
        "return": 0.0
      },
      {
        "stage": 4,
        "name": "Declining",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "weeks": 9,
        "return": 0.046002
      },
      {
        "stage": 1,
        "name": "Basing",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "weeks": 3,
        "return": 0.059322
      },
      {
        "stage": 2,
        "name": "Advancing",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "weeks": 16,
        "return": -0.109653
      },
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "weeks": 11,
        "return": -0.042117
      },
      {
        "stage": 4,
        "name": "Declining",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "weeks": 23,
        "return": -0.382022,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "architecture_outcomes": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": -0.021036,
        "positive_rate": 0.342857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.657143,
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        "worst_return": -0.164519,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
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        "median_return": -0.014099,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.07283,
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        "worst_return": -0.221069,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.047241,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.069281,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.359866,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.022276,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.230074,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.108212,
        "worst_return": -0.122807,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "architecture_ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "weeks": 34,
        "return": -0.106145,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
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        "weeks": 8,
        "return": -0.04125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "weeks": 4,
        "return": 0.010586,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
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        "return": -0.184685,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "weeks": 13,
        "return": -0.07241,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
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        "weeks": 4,
        "return": -0.087614,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "weeks": 6,
        "return": -0.025806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": -0.14699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "weeks": 9,
        "return": 0.142498,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": -0.01088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "weeks": 7,
        "return": -0.034677,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "weeks": 10,
        "return": -0.074,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "weeks": 4,
        "return": 0.008249,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "weeks": 29,
        "return": -0.392976,
        "active": true
      }
    ]
  }
}