{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d00742-d130-4ef2-ac75-33311d3b62d6", "symbol": "EDF", "name": "Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.023, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.991, "architecture_energy": 26.004, "architecture_maturity": 65.17, "architecture_confidence": 83.293, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.34, "rotation_up": 23.98, "upward_expansion": 56.76, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 42.29, "downward_expansion": 22.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.235275, 5.308994, 5.286716, 5.195866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.33, "trend_reference": 5.06593, "distance_from_trend": 0.052127, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.134343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.711814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11747, "excess_performance": -0.008155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11747, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.515966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 725324, "relative_activity": 0.942125, "balance": 1.515966, "dry_up": 0.829693, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037463, "annualized_volatility": 0.177296, "from_high_reference": -0.048801, "from_low_reference": 0.210328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.06593, "fair_value_reference": 4.134343, "structural_low": 4.601586, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.007265, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020125, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.132908, "worst_return": -0.114279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045919, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.009522, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.149925, "worst_return": -0.004622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118386, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000375, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.324558, "worst_return": 0.029277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03319, "active": false 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.11, "volume": 450344, "typical_volume": 841324.95, "trend": 5.023442, "fair_value": 4.107392, "relative_strength": -1.560795, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.836183, "energy": 20.326919, "activity_lines": [ 5.261048, 5.341977, 5.268002, 5.165888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 362724, "typical_volume": 785936.3, "trend": 5.041898, "fair_value": 4.120598, "relative_strength": -0.831991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.982607, "energy": 24.654138, "activity_lines": [ 5.218506, 5.313543, 5.271786, 5.177278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.33, "volume": 725324, "typical_volume": 769880.6, "trend": 5.06593, "fair_value": 4.134343, "relative_strength": -1.711814, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.991183, "energy": 26.004445, "activity_lines": [ 5.235275, 5.308994, 5.286716, 5.195866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }