{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d10304-9656-461e-a30e-056edff23714", "symbol": "CHIQ", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS MSCI CHINA CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.304, "architecture_energy": 27.507, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.796, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.4, "rotation_up": 37.71, "upward_expansion": 22.34, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 21.78, "downward_expansion": 56.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.058367, 17.538907, 17.909289, 18.433644 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.3331, "trend_reference": 19.20598, "distance_from_trend": -0.045448, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.093504, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.012542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150852, "excess_performance": -0.276477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.276823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79609, "relative_activity": 0.325624, "balance": 0.276823, "dry_up": 0.805591, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053169, "annualized_volatility": 0.253532, "from_high_reference": -0.250285, "from_low_reference": 0.191364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.20598, "fair_value_reference": 19.093504, "structural_low": 15.388331, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002612, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016352, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.479422, "worst_return": -0.154192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05462, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.418412, "worst_return": -0.288302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0051, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.075609, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.442172, "worst_return": -0.199168, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085588, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.141186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103786, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": 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81.054509, "activity_lines": [ 16.644238, 17.146831, 18.162209, 18.824809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.56, "volume": 136700, "typical_volume": 250634.15, "trend": 19.5692, "fair_value": 19.116616, "relative_strength": -22.789469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.405366, "energy": 59.509992, "activity_lines": [ 16.916182, 17.120361, 18.041417, 18.686796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.33, "volume": 475922, "typical_volume": 261706.3, "trend": 19.42121, "fair_value": 19.099584, "relative_strength": -22.790056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.158328, "energy": 44.820907, "activity_lines": [ 17.122421, 17.093922, 17.912435, 18.542332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.72, "volume": 95577, "typical_volume": 250414.7, "trend": 19.316543, "fair_value": 19.094412, "relative_strength": -17.046609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.211462, "energy": 24.69348, "activity_lines": [ 17.754667, 17.354131, 17.926309, 18.497092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.3331, "volume": 79609, "typical_volume": 244481.25, "trend": 19.20598, "fair_value": 19.093504, "relative_strength": -21.012542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.30421, "energy": 27.507148, "activity_lines": [ 18.058367, 17.538907, 17.909289, 18.433644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }