{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d1b730-b998-424f-96af-e8b8d8bc24ab", "symbol": "JAYNECOIND", "name": "Jayaswal Neco Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.48, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.419, "architecture_energy": 16.695, "architecture_maturity": 31.018, "architecture_confidence": 60.918, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 20.45, "upward_expansion": 43.53, "deceleration": 72.69, "rotation_down": 30.7, "downward_expansion": 35.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.054003, 89.318547, 92.884811, 90.842668 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 92.370003, "trend_reference": 87.346667, "distance_from_trend": 0.05751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.823141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.65469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.96418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.216035, "excess_performance": 0.259744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.65469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.632714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.149642, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.20551, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21209273, "relative_activity": 0.900196, "balance": 0.20551, "dry_up": 1.253532, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079005, "annualized_volatility": 0.425545, "from_high_reference": -0.210513, "from_low_reference": 0.759094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.346667, "fair_value_reference": 55.823141, "structural_low": 68.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006824, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.014422, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.402583, "worst_return": -0.046342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.107121, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.173415, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.665333, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106996, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.133407, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.455341, "worst_return": -0.085031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.046501, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": 8.114108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.671573, "energy": 23.152298, "activity_lines": [ 87.925335, 89.069819, 92.86743, 90.499355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.370003, "volume": 21209273, "typical_volume": 23560731.85, "trend": 87.346667, "fair_value": 55.823141, "relative_strength": 14.96418, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.419347, "energy": 16.694661, "activity_lines": [ 89.054003, 89.318547, 92.884811, 90.842668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }