{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d34979-f3e2-4c1d-a57e-b232b7f241f4", "symbol": "OSL", "name": "OncoSil Medical Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.496, "architecture_energy": 48.509, "architecture_maturity": 69.623, "architecture_confidence": 59.505, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.77, "rotation_up": 45.02, "upward_expansion": 72.45, "deceleration": 74.3, "rotation_down": 25.74, "downward_expansion": 12.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.206, 1.197636, 0.980452, 0.859625 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 0.746681, "distance_from_trend": 0.540149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.173094, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.470801, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.083413, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.769231, "excess_performance": 0.771708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.540149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0581, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.470801, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.323046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150834, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.635768, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.769231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1993215, "relative_activity": 3.250408, "balance": 0.831368, "dry_up": 1.874178, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198328, "annualized_volatility": 1.084932, "from_high_reference": -0.449761, "from_low_reference": 2.108108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.746681, "fair_value_reference": 2.173094, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.045643, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.074353, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.225806, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.20826, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.192308, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.288462, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.303412, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076923, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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0.733682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.16, "volume": 960680, "typical_volume": 480648.1, "trend": 0.711681, "fair_value": 2.224671, "relative_strength": 17.739828, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.67402, "energy": 86.551675, "activity_lines": [ 1.239667, 1.069545, 0.843595, 0.763014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.245, "volume": 1053529, "typical_volume": 515485.85, "trend": 0.722181, "fair_value": 2.206014, "relative_strength": 22.227273, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.302143, "energy": 63.815675, "activity_lines": [ 1.246667, 1.130455, 0.895048, 0.797422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1.27, "volume": 589710, "typical_volume": 521046.4, "trend": 0.733681, "fair_value": 2.189939, "relative_strength": 26.426058, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.969589, "energy": 57.683879, "activity_lines": [ 1.244667, 1.182545, 0.945262, 0.832765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1.15, "volume": 1993215, "typical_volume": 613219.9, "trend": 0.746681, "fair_value": 2.173094, "relative_strength": 15.083413, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.495645, "energy": 48.50925, "activity_lines": [ 1.206, 1.197636, 0.980452, 0.859625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }