{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d7ec2f-e144-4e34-b32e-8919bc3a7380", "symbol": "300549", "name": "Jouder Precision Industry (Kunshan) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.483, "architecture_energy": 53.642, "architecture_maturity": 61.653, "architecture_confidence": 93.004, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 19.19, "upward_expansion": 8.39, "deceleration": 55.48, "rotation_down": 58.08, "downward_expansion": 79.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.087333, 13.422909, 14.667449, 15.553038 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.82, "trend_reference": 16.757625, "distance_from_trend": -0.175301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.504677, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.92605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271271, "excess_performance": -0.27867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271271, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8752022, "relative_activity": 0.838096, "balance": 0.282925, "dry_up": 1.110552, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11594, "annualized_volatility": 0.466222, "from_high_reference": -0.417629, "from_low_reference": 0.238351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.757625, "fair_value_reference": 17.504677, "structural_low": 11.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.01773, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.011737, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.639929, "worst_return": -0.384868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.061002, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038325, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.464933, "worst_return": -0.234609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040991, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021061, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.360908, "worst_return": -0.261046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.665938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.66, "volume": 13407270, "typical_volume": 10879031.05, "trend": 17.322173, "fair_value": 17.772109, "relative_strength": -31.890298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.500624, "energy": 68.579253, "activity_lines": [ 13.541333, 14.254757, 15.537832, 16.352388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.08, "volume": 14855606, "typical_volume": 10697836.35, "trend": 17.11396, "fair_value": 17.646292, "relative_strength": -34.538322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.609839, "energy": 64.376243, "activity_lines": [ 12.986667, 13.707048, 15.132168, 16.014183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.07, "volume": 9373934, "typical_volume": 10542240.4, "trend": 16.923791, "fair_value": 17.562994, "relative_strength": -27.300061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.491884, "energy": 60.833014, "activity_lines": [ 12.912667, 13.452909, 14.851531, 15.753282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.82, "volume": 8752022, "typical_volume": 10442746.0, "trend": 16.757625, "fair_value": 17.504677, "relative_strength": -25.92605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.48256, "energy": 53.642168, "activity_lines": [ 13.087333, 13.422909, 14.667449, 15.553038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }