{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d93ffa-6c4e-4c77-a38f-a1ef21f31317", "symbol": "601608", "name": "CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.482, "architecture_energy": 57.91, "architecture_maturity": 78.572, "architecture_confidence": 91.145, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.77, "rotation_up": 24.17, "upward_expansion": 10.0, "deceleration": 60.83, "rotation_down": 54.33, "downward_expansion": 81.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.686778, 4.762149, 5.117537, 5.506231 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 6.082948, "distance_from_trend": -0.196114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.741923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.029262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.356579, "excess_performance": -0.313375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211422784, "relative_activity": 1.07228, "balance": 0.315852, "dry_up": 1.929839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091392, "annualized_volatility": 0.35256, "from_high_reference": -0.423349, "from_low_reference": 0.129758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.082948, "fair_value_reference": 4.741923, "structural_low": 4.328361, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005208, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.006991, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.094708, "worst_return": -0.105983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095317, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.06146, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.147059, "worst_return": -0.135135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.096382, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.065802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299735, "worst_return": -0.052699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-24.929616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.509189, "energy": 69.787968, "activity_lines": [ 4.625522, 4.83682, 5.266379, 5.685106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.68, "volume": 219518548, "typical_volume": 199403236.3, "trend": 6.139615, "fair_value": 4.735574, "relative_strength": -20.386581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.876926, "energy": 63.391988, "activity_lines": [ 4.620959, 4.771394, 5.176196, 5.586851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 211422784, "typical_volume": 197171335.9, "trend": 6.082948, "fair_value": 4.741923, "relative_strength": -19.029262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.482104, "energy": 57.910408, "activity_lines": [ 4.686778, 4.762149, 5.117537, 5.506231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }