{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9d97012-5d18-40f1-a54a-25840bcf6b03", "symbol": "3167", "name": "CSOP ETF Series - CSOP S&P New China Sectors ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.911, "architecture_energy": 29.178, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.835, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 37.24, "upward_expansion": 23.6, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 19.22, "downward_expansion": 55.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.396, 59.176363, 60.131048, 61.436688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 61.439999, "trend_reference": 63.623334, "distance_from_trend": -0.034317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.951795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.464197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109565, "excess_performance": -0.075984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.208696, "dry_up": 0.167696, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032001, "annualized_volatility": 0.178262, "from_high_reference": -0.195812, "from_low_reference": 0.137778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.623334, "fair_value_reference": 58.951795, "structural_low": 54.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.023735, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.007266, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.189338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049203, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026194, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.160581, "worst_return": -0.145861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014405, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023657, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356017, "worst_return": -0.226637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -66.619789, "energy": 82.443515, "activity_lines": [ 57.176, 58.491273, 60.776952, 62.536731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7202.5, "trend": 64.568667, "fair_value": 58.951282, "relative_strength": -8.01851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.310334, "energy": 64.69236, "activity_lines": [ 57.688, 58.277818, 60.439238, 62.144516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6132.5, "trend": 64.238667, "fair_value": 58.936667, "relative_strength": -8.905846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.386983, "energy": 47.135413, "activity_lines": [ 58.318667, 58.237091, 60.167048, 61.790409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.259998, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 6322.5, "trend": 63.944, "fair_value": 58.935513, "relative_strength": -8.69771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.145758, "energy": 27.745485, "activity_lines": [ 59.569333, 58.682182, 60.131524, 61.598237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.439999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5665.0, "trend": 63.623334, "fair_value": 58.951795, "relative_strength": -7.464197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.910903, "energy": 29.177578, "activity_lines": [ 60.396, 59.176363, 60.131048, 61.436688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }