{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9daf747-fa4b-4717-823c-389eaadd24f0", "symbol": "GOLDENTOBC", "name": "Golden Tobacco Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.085, "architecture_energy": 40.607, "architecture_maturity": 82.868, "architecture_confidence": 94.772, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.35, "rotation_up": 15.35, "upward_expansion": 6.65, "deceleration": 43.21, "rotation_down": 53.07, "downward_expansion": 77.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.93, 25.339636, 25.634333, 26.016452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.59, "trend_reference": 26.899333, "distance_from_trend": -0.085851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.955064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.06208, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18006, "excess_performance": -0.136351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054108, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18006, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8241, "relative_activity": 0.669592, "balance": 0.677183, "dry_up": 1.008206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087121, "annualized_volatility": 0.492092, "from_high_reference": -0.344267, "from_low_reference": 0.208948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.899333, "fair_value_reference": 38.955064, "structural_low": 20.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.036405, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031748, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.264675, "worst_return": -0.184303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.069038, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.118631, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.309412, "worst_return": -0.262482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.148117, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.119772, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.044974, "worst_return": -0.35896, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029135, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.186368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2025-01-31", 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12418, "typical_volume": 12291.65, "trend": 27.626, "fair_value": 39.334167, "relative_strength": -11.62137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.614495, "energy": 15.062088, "activity_lines": [ 26.258, 25.981091, 26.028047, 26.563591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.030001, "volume": 13625, "typical_volume": 12376.4, "trend": 27.356667, "fair_value": 39.217051, "relative_strength": -17.393232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.192939, "energy": 29.841465, "activity_lines": [ 25.548, 25.646364, 25.826095, 26.331591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.99, "volume": 15350, "typical_volume": 12448.6, "trend": 27.108, "fair_value": 39.097757, "relative_strength": -15.680128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.331192, "energy": 32.074352, "activity_lines": [ 25.230667, 25.512182, 25.741238, 26.178903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.59, "volume": 8241, "typical_volume": 12307.5, "trend": 26.899333, "fair_value": 38.955064, "relative_strength": -17.06208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.085133, "energy": 40.607101, "activity_lines": [ 24.93, 25.339636, 25.634333, 26.016452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }