{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9e6fbcb-bc7c-4bbe-b169-d21a13d2f773", "symbol": "AVGO34", "name": "Broadcom Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.43, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.247, "architecture_energy": 21.943, "architecture_maturity": 23.811, "architecture_confidence": 60.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.66, "rotation_up": 40.33, "upward_expansion": 59.86, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 19.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.854667, 28.446684, 28.738455, 28.026116 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.959999, "trend_reference": 27.067101, "distance_from_trend": 0.143824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.498957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.769248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.881402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.237182, "excess_performance": 0.294231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143824, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011341, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.769248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108814, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077712, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.701923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1355489, "relative_activity": 1.849401, "balance": 1.701923, "dry_up": 1.236966, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086159, "annualized_volatility": 0.49679, "from_high_reference": -0.043684, "from_low_reference": 0.421487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.067101, "fair_value_reference": 17.498957, "structural_low": 21.780001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014692, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160683, "worst_return": -0.080965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015878, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.034755, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.398358, "worst_return": -0.170094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141812, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.170866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55761, "worst_return": 0.09649, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.184694, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020123, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145394, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.718452, "volume": 122020, "typical_volume": 473107.5, "trend": 4.971094, "fair_value": 3.782, "relative_strength": 24.498401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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6.644928, "energy": 14.149136, "activity_lines": [ 27.767333, 28.362094, 28.428111, 27.646033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.530001, "volume": 734262, "typical_volume": 725035.25, "trend": 26.888237, "fair_value": 17.195128, "relative_strength": -2.37101, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.326981, "energy": 13.218808, "activity_lines": [ 27.552667, 28.099083, 28.41955, 27.687349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.09, "volume": 597614, "typical_volume": 696850.35, "trend": 26.910863, "fair_value": 17.336883, "relative_strength": -2.432634, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.492098, "energy": 8.208603, "activity_lines": [ 27.76, 27.996546, 28.451346, 27.764882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.959999, "volume": 1355489, "typical_volume": 732933.95, "trend": 27.067101, "fair_value": 17.498957, "relative_strength": 10.881402, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.246501, "energy": 21.942558, "activity_lines": [ 28.854667, 28.446684, 28.738455, 28.026116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }