{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9e849df-c295-4201-9672-3fb91c7f1951", "symbol": "688388", "name": "Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.347, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.232, "architecture_energy": 39.787, "architecture_maturity": 9.852, "architecture_confidence": 60.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.7, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 18.34, "deceleration": 59.27, "rotation_down": 68.66, "downward_expansion": 45.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.672666, 31.107467, 32.760075, 32.458551 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.799999, "trend_reference": 31.934345, "distance_from_trend": -0.09815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.987369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.695377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.054409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02545, "excess_performance": 0.017754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.695377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.499247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020544, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892457, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197098922, "relative_activity": 0.96801, "balance": 0.892457, "dry_up": 1.033088, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221366, "annualized_volatility": 0.806299, "from_high_reference": -0.43695, "from_low_reference": 1.009542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.934345, "fair_value_reference": 16.987369, "structural_low": 21.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.147791, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103042, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.047242, "worst_return": -0.24834, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.463608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.328618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.463608, "worst_return": -0.463608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.354917, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.278459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.354917, "worst_return": -0.354917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2022-08-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.779546, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214821, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118655, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116335, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117366, 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"activity_lines": [ 39.114242, 37.760467, 35.447796, 33.95917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.75, "volume": 244749980, "typical_volume": 207711942.3, "trend": 32.121272, "fair_value": 16.828266, "relative_strength": 8.848198, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.42799, "energy": 10.702139, "activity_lines": [ 35.205334, 36.385338, 34.98514, 33.749738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.26, "volume": 239253333, "typical_volume": 208764505.15, "trend": 32.086578, "fair_value": 16.870304, "relative_strength": -9.943465, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.666675, "energy": 30.201082, "activity_lines": [ 30.541334, 34.297501, 34.101802, 33.24256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 160295936, "typical_volume": 203252793.75, "trend": 31.915547, "fair_value": 16.908423, "relative_strength": -15.306736, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.870163, "energy": 43.621354, "activity_lines": [ 27.002, 32.108683, 33.138957, 32.659555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 197098922, "typical_volume": 203612433.8, "trend": 31.934345, "fair_value": 16.987369, "relative_strength": 2.054409, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.231917, "energy": 39.787131, "activity_lines": [ 26.672666, 31.107467, 32.760075, 32.458551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }