{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9ea7f1d-d22c-416a-8e36-630628acc0a3", "symbol": "ASTS", "name": "Ast Spacemobile Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.774, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.726, "architecture_energy": 58.458, "architecture_maturity": 18.516, "architecture_confidence": 86.145, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.83, "rotation_up": 11.33, "upward_expansion": 11.81, "deceleration": 39.22, "rotation_down": 66.12, "downward_expansion": 85.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.542667, 68.294364, 76.431952, 79.697957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 71.94, "trend_reference": 85.2825, "distance_from_trend": -0.156451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.272692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.930099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.627737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.293251, "excess_performance": -0.480704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.930099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.486476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.900446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72672637, "relative_activity": 0.760109, "balance": 0.900446, "dry_up": 0.84349, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.260314, "annualized_volatility": 0.925291, "from_high_reference": -0.462572, "from_low_reference": 0.993902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.2825, "fair_value_reference": 37.272692, "structural_low": 52.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.116812, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.094451, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.125561, "worst_return": -0.336272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.305336, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.368035, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.577882, "worst_return": -0.261965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.346604, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.085882, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 8.046729, "worst_return": -0.221662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 92234972.2, "trend": 88.082833, "fair_value": 35.809744, "relative_strength": -16.679569, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.194868, "energy": 40.871667, "activity_lines": [ 77.68, 83.848364, 84.896429, 86.390925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.8, "volume": 121647783, "typical_volume": 95247980.25, "trend": 87.4815, "fair_value": 36.154808, "relative_strength": -31.241369, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.701859, "energy": 63.840803, "activity_lines": [ 70.748667, 78.638182, 82.265452, 84.437194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.2, "volume": 71332962, "typical_volume": 94536425.85, "trend": 86.9565, "fair_value": 36.487885, "relative_strength": -31.906856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.948786, "energy": 66.485721, "activity_lines": [ 64.924667, 73.450727, 79.583952, 82.419032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.98, "volume": 56924795, "typical_volume": 94855798.7, "trend": 86.140167, "fair_value": 36.838782, "relative_strength": -28.823172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.404646, "energy": 68.215611, "activity_lines": [ 61.658, 69.268182, 77.325667, 80.614097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.94, "volume": 72672637, "typical_volume": 95608168.85, "trend": 85.2825, "fair_value": 37.272692, "relative_strength": -17.627737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.725808, "energy": 58.458024, "activity_lines": [ 63.542667, 68.294364, 76.431952, 79.697957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }