{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9eeaabe-1449-4413-8c51-24633cec2429", "symbol": "B1NT34", "name": "BioNTech SE", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.792, "architecture_energy": 30.432, "architecture_maturity": 51.69, "architecture_confidence": 94.551, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.95, "rotation_up": 24.58, "upward_expansion": 5.4, "deceleration": 48.18, "rotation_down": 47.01, "downward_expansion": 76.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.151334, 29.253819, 29.432714, 29.956882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.700001, "trend_reference": 31.243, "distance_from_trend": -0.049387, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.967436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125633, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.810235, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.151671, "excess_performance": -0.094623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049387, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176961, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151671, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1405, "relative_activity": 0.433421, "balance": 0.63519, "dry_up": 0.318665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048174, "annualized_volatility": 0.356512, "from_high_reference": -0.27561, "from_low_reference": 0.152056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.243, "fair_value_reference": 33.967436, "structural_low": 25.780001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013199, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": -0.003555, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.255236, "worst_return": -0.123596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013909, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030088, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.240766, "worst_return": -0.224102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008775, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.106371, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.378277, "worst_return": -0.220625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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24.20647, "activity_lines": [ 29.556, 29.394182, 29.826095, 30.755419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.34, "volume": 3832, "typical_volume": 4414.85, "trend": 31.726333, "fair_value": 34.046667, "relative_strength": -20.182924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.544511, "energy": 21.824161, "activity_lines": [ 29.610667, 29.367454, 29.716095, 30.595849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.280001, "volume": 1161, "typical_volume": 4433.3, "trend": 31.639333, "fair_value": 34.027308, "relative_strength": -17.529352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.295192, "energy": 19.687118, "activity_lines": [ 29.583334, 29.388182, 29.629809, 30.438021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.530001, "volume": 92, "typical_volume": 4369.2, "trend": 31.501333, "fair_value": 34.007564, "relative_strength": -18.758056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.284777, "energy": 26.994209, "activity_lines": [ 29.258001, 29.259273, 29.500095, 30.237419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.82, "volume": 1474, "typical_volume": 3313.7, "trend": 31.367, "fair_value": 33.986667, "relative_strength": -18.843394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.347589, "energy": 33.15851, "activity_lines": [ 29.054667, 29.174909, 29.421, 30.06443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.700001, "volume": 1405, "typical_volume": 3241.65, "trend": 31.243, "fair_value": 33.967436, "relative_strength": -12.810235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.791884, "energy": 30.43202, "activity_lines": [ 29.151334, 29.253819, 29.432714, 29.956882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }