{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9ef9e2a-9f18-42db-bc57-54d14f16477b", "symbol": "300264", "name": "AVIT Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.174, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.548, "architecture_energy": 75.426, "architecture_maturity": 18.225, "architecture_confidence": 83.11, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.74, "rotation_up": 8.82, "upward_expansion": 17.4, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 76.44, "downward_expansion": 93.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.607333, 7.288364, 7.967143, 8.324344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.77, "trend_reference": 8.492333, "distance_from_trend": -0.20281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.396538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.667414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0832, "excess_performance": 0.0758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0832, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78403650, "relative_activity": 0.906075, "balance": 0.755864, "dry_up": 0.987125, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183161, "annualized_volatility": 0.799151, "from_high_reference": -0.40718, "from_low_reference": 0.332677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.492333, "fair_value_reference": 6.396538, "structural_low": 5.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.078899, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.07612, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.291589, "worst_return": -0.205567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.15867, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.097167, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.444828, "worst_return": -0.110687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075342, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.62089, "worst_return": 0.01145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.496764, "energy": 40.354549, "activity_lines": [ 7.942, 8.313636, 8.66019, 8.737699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.06, "volume": 82902833, "typical_volume": 92555964.1, "trend": 8.498333, "fair_value": 6.395321, "relative_strength": -19.479364, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.879937, "energy": 65.183212, "activity_lines": [ 7.194, 7.848727, 8.379762, 8.578452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.28, "volume": 111399420, "typical_volume": 91292138.1, "trend": 8.490333, "fair_value": 6.393782, "relative_strength": -15.076271, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.374656, "energy": 77.99737, "activity_lines": [ 6.702667, 7.493636, 8.140762, 8.435333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.77, "volume": 78403650, "typical_volume": 86531071.9, "trend": 8.492333, "fair_value": 6.396538, "relative_strength": -12.667414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.548293, "energy": 75.425951, "activity_lines": [ 6.607333, 7.288364, 7.967143, 8.324344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }