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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.516, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.443, "architecture_energy": 28.248, "architecture_maturity": 44.007, "architecture_confidence": 42.34, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.86, "rotation_up": 42.34, "upward_expansion": 64.26, "deceleration": 64.8, "rotation_down": 21.51, "downward_expansion": 14.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.716667, 17.73598, 17.018306, 16.754255 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.5, "trend_reference": 16.528559, "distance_from_trend": 0.058773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.350647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046355, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.691248, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050252, "excess_performance": -0.39112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170954, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142918, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.718267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8900925, "relative_activity": 0.475682, "balance": 1.718267, "dry_up": 1.412277, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081356, "annualized_volatility": 0.356899, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.247175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.528559, "fair_value_reference": 18.350647, "structural_low": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.528516, "energy": 81.654255, "activity_lines": [ 17.953427, 17.145255, 16.476492, 16.383887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.15, "volume": 61982702, "typical_volume": 18176109.25, "trend": 16.334817, "fair_value": 18.471597, "relative_strength": -12.87066, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.615311, "energy": 81.860309, "activity_lines": [ 18.493206, 17.631976, 16.753269, 16.573375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.25, "volume": 23898240, "typical_volume": 18710174.7, "trend": 16.399868, "fair_value": 18.430843, "relative_strength": -19.709025, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.329088, "energy": 55.021033, "activity_lines": [ 18.224084, 17.694357, 16.839568, 16.632419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.25, "volume": 10923889, "typical_volume": 18847085.15, "trend": 16.461671, "fair_value": 18.39038, "relative_strength": -20.863797, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.422006, "energy": 42.450025, "activity_lines": [ 17.889821, 17.712397, 16.920055, 16.687266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.5, "volume": 8900925, "typical_volume": 18711939.85, "trend": 16.528559, "fair_value": 18.350647, "relative_strength": -21.691248, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.443222, "energy": 28.24802, "activity_lines": [ 17.716667, 17.73598, 17.018306, 16.754255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }