{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b9fbaeb9-b7e1-49d2-af47-d9d6f4e77c91", "symbol": "RIAA3", "name": "Guararapes Confec\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.864, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.559, "architecture_energy": 70.546, "architecture_maturity": 15.206, "architecture_confidence": 84.03, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.95, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 34.37, "rotation_down": 71.74, "downward_expansion": 88.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.946667, 8.288993, 8.6125, 8.805667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.76, "trend_reference": 9.024038, "distance_from_trend": -0.140075, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.072981, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.116864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218855, "excess_performance": -0.161806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7549200, "relative_activity": 1.256021, "balance": 0.572329, "dry_up": 1.090325, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100055, "annualized_volatility": 0.419272, "from_high_reference": -0.291506, "from_low_reference": 0.344291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.024038, "fair_value_reference": 6.072981, "structural_low": 7.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.041812, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028476, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.595918, "worst_return": -0.242161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.083396, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014603, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.142119, "worst_return": -0.348869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.285595, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.29544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.51458, "worst_return": -0.196176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", 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6998295.0, "trend": 9.101921, "fair_value": 5.995181, "relative_strength": 4.316245, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.994308, "energy": 4.086658, "activity_lines": [ 8.993281, 8.884258, 9.027531, 9.108391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.22, "volume": 6430900, "typical_volume": 6753940.0, "trend": 9.096388, "fair_value": 6.015634, "relative_strength": -4.290568, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.285415, "energy": 23.837552, "activity_lines": [ 8.761445, 8.768232, 8.945145, 9.051493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.67, "volume": 5259600, "typical_volume": 6236360.0, "trend": 9.055859, "fair_value": 6.032919, "relative_strength": -10.942091, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.940638, "energy": 54.615403, "activity_lines": [ 8.379208, 8.570695, 8.818028, 8.959468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.95, "volume": 6973500, "typical_volume": 6137350.0, "trend": 9.038053, "fair_value": 6.053737, "relative_strength": -9.850997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.008314, "energy": 61.002731, "activity_lines": [ 8.151333, 8.436754, 8.7236, 8.888122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.76, "volume": 7549200, "typical_volume": 6010410.0, "trend": 9.024038, "fair_value": 6.072981, "relative_strength": -9.116864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.558688, "energy": 70.546076, "activity_lines": [ 7.946667, 8.288993, 8.6125, 8.805667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }